5 PSP predictions for 2006

by Ed Stasick { Jan 12th 2006 at 11:26PM }

There's really no telling what 2006 has in store for the PSP (we're not even sure Sony knows what's going on). But here's our predictions for what's headed our way in what is shaping up to be the year of the PSP.

PSP Prediction #1: The UMD movie market will collapse. 2006 will see too much UMD content delivered too quickly. It will continue to be priced too high and include the bare minimum in terms of value add (we should have predicted this for 2005). The new format war between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray combined with the mainstream acceptance of "digital content on demand" via the likes of iTunes and Google will leave little room for the oh-so-cute UMD. Inventories will rise, prices will plummet and new content being delivered on the format will level off to something more sustainable by the market.

PSP Prediction #2: The PSP will take on some very specific colors. The black monolith will make some room at the table for brothers and sisters of different colors. Sony will begin to ~~steal~~ adopt some tried-and-true iPod marketing tactics and release the PSP with new color and accessory options before the year is out. Count on at least two new colors, including a hot-rod red and a camo green, possibly marketed with or around the likes of, oh, let's say Gran Turismo 4 and Metal Gear Solid.

PSP Prediction #3: The PSP will allow you to access your PS3 from anywhere. Now, this prediction depends on the release date of the PS3. It's still Spring right? Right. Anyway, you'll be able to access PSP content content that is stored on your PS3's HDD (media, game saves, whatever) by accessing it via the PSP over a wifi Internet connection. Have a layover at the airport? Just whip out your PSP, access a hotspot and phone home to stream your favorite movie. You won't be streaming PS3 games or anything like that, but who needs memory sticks now?

PSP Prediction #4: The PSP will get a price drop and then some. Yeah, this one is a bit of a no-brainer, but we wanted to get at least 1 out of 5 right. The PSP will certainly see a price drop this year (likely sometime in the Fall, but possibly at E3). We expect the drop to be in the $50 dollar range, but the important part of this prediction is that you may also see additional pack-ins or offers that sweeten the pot. Don't be surprised to see another movie included "free" like Spiderman was during the PSP's launch. In fact, depending on how bad the UMD crash of '06 gets, you may see multiple free movie offers as Sony tries to dump and write-off the inventory of its own studio's UMDs. This scenario would be very similar to the early days of DVD where Warner Brothers produced too much product and offered 5 free DVDs with the purchase of certain partner companies' DVD players.

PSP Prediction #5: Sony will completely botch PSP advertising in 06. Ok, so we're going for a guaranteed 2 out of 5 correct predictions now. After a couple of advertising fiascoes in 2005 (the "Italy incident" and the "Graffiti conundrum") Sony will take a much more cautious approach, and, again, look at how ~~Apple~~ select competitors have successfully advertised their products. Expect PSP ads to go upscale and play up the "lifestyle" aspects of the device ("now with new colors that match any personality!"). This will further distance the PSP from its actual core competency: gaming. It will take Nintendo's Gameboy SP successor to wake Sony up and get them back on track with the PSP as a gaming device.

There you have it, 5 predictions for the ages (or at least 2006). Agree, disagree? Have your own predictions? Join the fun and comment below.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

denger @ Jan 13th 2006 2:08AM

Ohhh. Most of these are negative predictions. I, like many, would have predicted homebrew on 2.01+ too

Rodney R. Itier @ Jan 13th 2006 6:21AM

It is fairly logical to assume people will want to use the PSP device for more than just gaming. I can not accept the notion that UMD is the bastard child of DVD because nothing can be further from the truth. The studios don't readily see the medium as profitable in the way DVD's have exhibited success in the ancillary market but they are also part of the problem because from what I can see the studios have not recognized the opportunity this new medium presents for marketing their products. It is possible to stuff 4 hours worth of video on the UMD (text is something entirely different as there is a limit to how much text the disc can handle) I won't get into a discussion about quality transferring because it will only enflame consumers to learn the current process used by studios to transfer content to the UMD format is completely counterproductive to the intent and capability of this new and exciting medium on the whole. In short, there is a proper way to transfer content so that quality will no longer be a problem which has all to do with where the transfer process initiates. I should also touch on audio-which for the most part has been all but overlooked by the studios who prefer to simply re-print their existing titles so to flood the market with the exact same product as they make available on DVD without using their influence and capital to really distribute a high caliber product thus creating the impression that UMD is somehow inferior to DVD. For this reason, Silver Platter, The Indie UMD Label (www.umdlab.com), has formed to bring the public high quality short-form content formatted expressly for the PSP that is as entertaining for five minutes as it is for four hours. Why? Because, someone has to.

Jason Anderson @ Jan 13th 2006 11:41AM

I would gladly pay $5 for a UMD movie. Nothing more. Here's hoping for a crash!

Rodney Itier @ Jan 13th 2006 1:48PM

You are certainly entitled to your opinion. I don't think UMD will never cost $5. I guess you just have to attach a value to what entertains you. If I'm getting up 4 hours of footage at my fingertips I can see paying $17.95 (MSRP) but never the price those studios are asking for the same re-tread.

Hisyam @ Jan 13th 2006 2:27PM

oh, no UMD Player for the public prediction? =P

pawan @ Jan 13th 2006 3:31PM

UMD movies dont make sense (atleast not to me) ... i'd much rather buy a dvd, rip it, convert it, play it from a memory stick. that way i have a high quality dvd with all the bonus features which can be ripped to my PSP whenever needed. and i dont care how much you argue about attaching entertainment value to a UMD - it just doesnt make financial sense to 98% of the PSP users. For most - PSP = gaming, ipod = media (thats not me, but 4 out of 5 psp owners at my workplace think this).

I realise that most gamers dont appreciate this, but the PSP is far more attractive as a multi-function device than as a only-gaming device. and sony is going to capitalise on this aspect for 2006.

Rodney Itier @ Jan 13th 2006 4:26PM

I agree with pawan which is why short=form content works so well. It is produced for the PSP and uses the encoding system that actually formats specific to UMD so the QUALITY is umpteenth times better than what you might experience from the rip and convert process explained above. While I'm on the subject, there is a less expensive (and more expensive) PSP in the works which will take the burden of ownership off your wallet. Listen, pawan, I'm willing to ship you our titles because I believe that you will see things another way after having checked out the difference between what they do and what Silver Platter has done to advance video entertainment expressly for the PSP. Let me know if you are interested. Goto http://www.umdlab.comI agree with pawan which is why short=form content works so well. It is produced for the PSP and uses the encoding system that actually formats specific to UMD so the QUALITY is umpteenth times better than what you might experience from the rip and convert process explained above. While I'm on the subject, there is a less expensive (and more expensive) PSP in the works which will take the burden of ownership off your wallet. Listen, pawan, I'm willing to ship you our titles because I believe that you will see things another way after having checked out the difference between what they do and what Silver Platter has done to advance video entertainment expressly for the PSP. Let me know if you are interested. Goto http://www.umdlab.com

SuicideNinja @ Jan 13th 2006 4:43PM

You forgot the most important predictions:

1. The PSP gets games that actually make the product worth the money you spent!

2. The first batch of PSPs start getting "disc-read errors"

3. (Already metioned) Amazing homebrew comes out!

Rodney Itier @ Jan 13th 2006 7:01PM

Yeah, that would be a point to make if I were talking about gaming. I believe in the alternative gaming market and if we get even more specific-pricing, which is the ultimate common denominator, Indie titles are giving the consumer an accurate measure of what a doable price point looks like which is largely compettitive to not only studio releases and game title releases but DVD's as well. In all the market research I've done action sports video games and urban culture related (i.e. Tony Hawk & Grand Theft Auto) have done quite well. To address your other point (and thanks for mentioning this because it really should be discussed), name one device that has escaped minor glitches during their initial bow. I believe those functionality issues are being dealt with by the manufacturer.

Delta Green @ Jan 13th 2006 11:32PM

Another one:

MemoryStick Pro Duos will come out in 4GB and 8GB versions, costing more than the PSP itself.

Oh, wait, it's happening already:

http://sanityisfortheweak.blogsome.com/2006/01/14/4gb-8gb-memorystick-pro-duo-cards/#comments

Duh.

Cross Fire @ Jan 14th 2006 3:54AM

I hate to point this out, but the idea of marketing a handheld electronical device under the notion of a variety of colours was not pioneered by Apple with their iPod, or even there iMacs, or whatever. It was Nintendo, with their Gameboy. After the market had been pretty much dominated, to generate more sales, somebody in the marketing department of Nintendo decided that re-releasing the Gameboy in a variety of colours oughta do the trick to boost sales. They were damn right, cuz I remember how trendy it was to walk around with your favourate colour Gameboy.

shukero @ Jan 15th 2006 12:56AM

Ok what I dont get is why is this story even writen? Its like the author wants an ipod to have sex with a psp. hence the iPSP. Well hate to tell ya man, the psp already ahs everything the iPOD does except for "psp-casts" and dont think for a second that psp will follow in iPODS foot steps for anything from commercials to colors. Because well if they do they'll be in court REALLY SOON AFTERWARD. Can anyone say law suite?

Second off the umd thing, just boogus. If you dont get WHY they did umd, then you are too retarded to even be reading my post. Its umd cause they didnt want people putting dvd's into thier computers ripping games then putting them on to psp's. other words copy right security. And really NOTHIGN ELSE will fit into a psp other than a umd. So hate to tell you this but umm if the UMD crashes then well EVERYTHING ABOUT THE PSP CRASHES. And if everything crashes then there will be no more psp's and no more predictions. Umd's are small, compact and can hold TONS of data on them. the graphics are good and I see NO REASON why they'ed be going down anytime soon.

Third games and videos that ARE umd are NOT pricey AT ALL most games are $10 below the normal ps2 / xbox release prices sometimes even lower. And as for the psp going down in price to $50, well I dont know about you but I dont know if I could smoke as much weed as I would need to smoke in order to believe that. The psp is the BEST compact and portable gaming / multi-media device out there, hence there is NO REASON for son to bring down the price of it. Even when the PS3 comes out, I do acknowledge that it might come down in price about 20 bucks but if you think that it'll go down in p[rice about 200 bucks just because you think that the umd's might have a problem, then well you arte smoking WAY TOO much weed.

Fourth there is FINALLY something I do agree with though. I do beleive that there will be new colors for the psp but not so that it copies the iPOD. If that did happen sony would be hearing from MAC lawyers by the next morning. I really do hope that they come out with some cool designs for the new colors as well.

Fifth and final. I'd think tht it would be kickass if the psp and PS3 did get along so that the PS3 could stream video over the internet. But that would man having to keep the ps3 on while you are out and about in the country. And that would take a lot of hdd space and a great cooling system to keep the PS3 from screwing up. And since they just came out with the freelocation thing I highly doubt that they'll scrap those just so the PS3 can have it.

well you cant always tell the future I give you that. But next time, dont pick a guy thats fantasized with MAC and the iPOD to do something on the psp. Also make sure he has some common sense as well. later.

Ed Stasick @ Jan 15th 2006 1:32AM

#11, you made my day. That is a classic post that had me ROTFL! I think we'll put this one in the Joystiq vault. Priceless!

Matt @ Jan 15th 2006 12:14PM

If prediction 3 is correct, I forsee LOTS of bricked and hacked PS3's.

Rodney R. Itier @ Jan 15th 2006 7:05PM

The news is the PSP is here as are the viedo iPod and on the way are many other portable entertainment devices so, the market looks to be headed towards expansion-I'm happy about that. We can go into why the UMD was created... I believe it is about providing choices-I'd be a liar if I couldn't admit that I have long wished for handheld gadgets to toy around with. The quality of the UMD picture when experiencing a properly encoded tranfer is on par with HD and DVD (all that jazz). Sony has shipped 10 MIllion PSP's worldwide so far and the prediction is 20 Million before 2007. The conversation now is what can I do with it besides gaming? The next hot thing out there for the PSP is location free television (learn more here:http://www.askdavetaylor.com/what_is_location_free_on_my_sony_psp.html) Also, there are a host of very good indie movies out right now. I believe short form content (action sports, urban culture, etc.) will be widely accepted as a result of their relative 'playability' and interactive capability. Visit http://www.pspset.com for movie reviews, trailers, and FREE Downloads. Let's see what's next.

Deth @ Jan 15th 2006 7:43PM

shukero-

1. you are an idiot

2. you are an idiot

3. you are an idiot

4. you are an idiot

5. you are an idiot

Cheers!

phantoma @ Jan 15th 2006 9:19PM

PS3 doesn't have a hard drive, now if a ps3 might have a location free player built-in to it. That and an HDD are two completely different things.

Also i would have predicted that sony would have finally release downloadable content, as in game-demos, movie trailers, music videos/mp3s, and application.

Formality on Homebrew, sony's final acceptance on private apps.(the game option on memory card will finally have a use)

Chat application on psp using the socom microphone or thrid party developer, Nintendo's use of pictochat on DS and microsoft offering live video conversation aswell as audio chat has shown how important a community might be within a console/handheld. And with the implimentation of the "refreshed" connect service and the release of the PS3 will have this at hand, this might be the hidden key with the psp and might explain why there were that many games with infrastructure mode. So remember, the formalization of the online playstation systems is coming for 2006 (expect "connect" as a possible rival to "live").

rtheman @ Jan 16th 2006 12:52PM

I'd still like to see GPS features added on by someone that can nicely package a well produced package (receiver, software, and UI) considering the fact of PSP input features and battery life.

On the same train of thoughts, VOIP apps/UI utilizing the built-in wifi would also be VERY nice.

Poseidongroove @ Jan 16th 2006 2:55PM

Ed, Pawan,

UMD movies might not be designed for you maybe because you're hardcore gamers.

For business travellers like me, it's a God send, I don't have time to rip movies. I know several folks that have bought the PSP primarily because of this feature alone. Besides the small screen is more discreet that a laptop.

As far as I'm concerned the PSP is a convergence device first and a games console second. Alright I play games like Metal Gear Acid on it just as much as use it for streaming podcasts wirelessly. I bet you Apple will introduce a new iPod for that rather than update the firmware of existing iPods. That's why I'll never be suckered into buying anything from Apple.

Stop knocking Sony. For a first release of a product it's fantastic. I'd love to see VOIP, Streamed Videocast, Wireless Synch and some PDA functionality soon. If PS3 Support Location Free TV and it's launched before the world cup it's game set and match. Anyway, I've summarised thoughts on this wonderful Web 2.0 device in my blog

http://poseidongroove.blogspot.com/2006/01/convergence-devices-and-eworkplace_11.html

Ed Stasick @ Jan 16th 2006 7:01PM

Poseidongroove,

I see your point, but the prediction isn't based on my not wanting to watch movies on a PSP because I'm simply a "hardcore" gamer. Quite the contrary... I am desperate to (for the record I own a video iPod and an Archos AV 420 to watch movies and video). The basis of the prediction (and the perceived criticism) is that UMDs cost too much and offer too little. They cost as much if not more than their DVD counterparts who have loads of extras and basic usability things we take for grante like chapter selection. It's not that UMD as a technology or as a concept is poor. It's that the execution is. An, yes, as with all things there will be those that love it.

brandon @ Jan 21st 2006 2:19PM

Considering this is Sony's first foray into the handheld market, it is a quite commendable entry. You gotta admit, despite some of the shortcomings (lack of a second analog has made for some rather frustrating control experiences), for this to be their first time at plate im willing to accept some quirks.
The UMD business isn't as bad as most think. Believe it or not, people buy them, and I know at least where I live, they are typically 5 to 8 dollars cheaper than a full priced dvd. So unless you want to buy a 1 or 2gb card for over 100 bucks, 16 dollars is a rather economical choice for many.
Last year most predicted that Hollywood wouldnt even take UMD seriously, that sony would have a hard time getting any company beyond themselves on board. But now look, there are so many UMD movies, they outnumber games by a huge amount. The fact is, despite what many hardcore gamers may want, the PSP is just as enticing for its multimedia capabilites as it is for its gaming. So its hard to downplay one in favor of the other, because they both are very important for the success for the system.
I definitely expect a redesign in 2007, perhaps mostly on the inside, incorperating some internal storage and built in mic. A second analog would be a godsend and would finally remove the hurdle that keeps so many types of games from having good controls. Colors would be nice, and it seems to always boost sales of any system. A snap on keyboard peripheral would be nice, to flesh out the device as a webbrowsing machine. Other than those suggestions, I'm pretty satisfied with the psp's first year. Remember, Nintendo had a bit of a slump too in the first 6 months of its console. Perhaps its only a little while longer before we get some AAA titles.