And the winner of the console war is... ?

by Adams Briscoe { May 15th 2006 at 4:00PM }

In a recent poll by GameSpot, the gaming community piped up about their future spending on next-gen consoles. The question was, "Which of the three next-gen consoles do you think you'll own by this time next year?"

Taking into consideration the news from E3, the results may not surprise you:
Just a Wii 27.57% 26052
Just a PS3 17.03% 16093
PS3 and Wii 16.69% 15774
Wii and 360 13.18% 12455
None of them 8.32% 7865
All three 6.62% 6257
PS3 and 360 5.28% 4986
Just a 360 5.31% 5022

Second place isn't exactly where Sony wishes they could be right now. However there's a certain law of economy at work here that just makes you say "duh!" Of course, polls are by no means representative of the unforeseeable future, so keep your ear to the ground and we'll see what happens.

Tags: nintendo, playstation, poll, ps3, sony, wii

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

boots (former bd) @ May 15th 2006 4:22PM

Excellent results. As things should be: Quality over quantity.

funkbass23 @ May 15th 2006 4:58PM

Wow, among all of these things Sony manages to be in second place of the polls despite the sticker shock. Yet, you guys still manage to make it a Sony bash fest. Did you notice that your beloved Xbox 360 is low on the list?

Codepope @ May 15th 2006 5:13PM

The more interesting part is that the 360 is still coming in third; If we add up the percentages as if they were 'units' we get per console we get...

Wii 64.05 60538
PS3 45.62 43110
360 30.39 28720

The 360 is solidly in third, which I don't think is where MS want to be with their one year lead and all.

Cage @ May 15th 2006 5:24PM

Most people already have a 360. This question is asking which one you are planning on getting (the way the questions stated they are trying to make you choose between Wii and PS3). You fanboys are jumping out of everywhere posting with any "positive" news...HA!

Codepope @ May 15th 2006 5:29PM

To quote...

"The question was, "Which of the three next-gen consoles do you think you'll own by this time next year?""

Not which one are you thinking of getting as Cage stated, but which ones do you think you'll own. Existing 360 owners are already nominally counted, unless 360 owners like myself are going to be suddenly selling them before E3 next year. :)

Dirk Dorkelson @ May 15th 2006 5:57PM

What about the fact that this was a Web survey of readers of a particular website? Not exactly the most reliable, scientific way to predict the future. I find it difficult to believe that Xbox will slip to only 20% of market share in a year from now, if only because they'll probably have sold more units than the Wii and the PS3 combined because of their extra year on the market. They could very well finish third this round. Who knows w/o the products in the stores to compare? But Sony and Nintendo aren't going to outsell the 360 by a rate of 5-to-1 during the December through April period, particularly if there are shortages, which there will probably be. It just isn't physically possible.

jon @ May 15th 2006 6:28PM

360 will definately reach 10 million by Christmas. So no matter what a poll for one game site says. They will be way ahead of Sony or Nintendo for at least another year.

James @ May 15th 2006 6:38PM

Everything was listed from the highest to the lowest percentage until you get to the last one. Obvious some bias or fanboyism on this particular blog.

The Guru @ May 15th 2006 6:56PM

Yes, because a poll of 94504 people indicate the results of millions and millions of consoles sold. This has got to predict the outcome of the console war.

Dirk Dorkelson @ May 15th 2006 7:33PM

Guru,

If it were a scientific poll with a representative sample, rather than an unscientific online survey with an extremely limited sample, 94,504 would be more than sufficient to predict the behavior of millions of people.

The Guru @ May 15th 2006 8:56PM

I disagree. Do you think the wii will do the best? I like the console, but to say that it will sell the most consoles is a bit of a long shot.

Besides, this poll was before Sony's price announcement. That could have swayed some voters. (Although unlikely because if you are on gaming sites, and you plan to buy a certain console, then you are likely to purchase that console no matter what.)

My cousins own ps2s, but I can gaurantee you they won't be getting ps3s at that price.

This poll IS NOT sufficient to predict the purchase of millions of consoles. Like I said earlier-hardcore gamers wont be dissuaded to purchase a ps3 by the price points, average joe blow, like my cousins, will be however.

Dirk Dorkelson @ May 15th 2006 10:52PM

Guru,

You're saying the same thing as I am. Basically, I think the survey (which isn't the same thing as a poll) is bunk. I was merely pointing out that a scientific poll of a representative sample of people could reliably predict what people could do.

However, this survey was neither scientific nor of a representative sample.

OK, the nerdery has gone on long enough.

Galls @ May 15th 2006 11:00PM

http://vgstrategies.about.com/gi/pages/poll.htm?linkback=http://vgstrategies.about.com/od/videogamesurveyspolls/&poll_id=3184139045&poll=3&submit1=Submit%20Vote

boots (former bd) @ May 16th 2006 12:06AM

Guru, you didn't get Dirk Dorkelson's point. What he said is that statistically speaking, 94000+ people are more than enough to predict the outcome. So it won't predict which console will 200 million people (give or take) buy, but it does predict a lot of *millions* anyway.

To put it easier for you: Since this was taken from Gamespot, I'm saying the poll signifies something to the gaming population (not necessarily hardcore, but somewhat informed), but not to the overall population that includes non-gamers or casuals alike.

And why is it so hard to believe that "Wii" could do so good? Remember the times when the NES came out... oh wait. Wii is cheap, and new (a revolution, not an evolution). Why would "casuals" or "non-gamers" choose 360 over Wii anyway? 360 is just a Super Super Super Super Nintendo after all, while Wii is a lot cheaper and new. So, in your own words, the "average joe blow" will prefer a single console (not two), with a new experience which is more fun and costs less on the games and the hardware. Not to mention that the launch window for Wii seems to have the best launch list ever.

Oh, and if people think PS3 will sell less than the first Xbox, remember that the 3DO sold 6 million consoles, despite the fact that it cost 700 dollars (in 1993, which is a lot more than 700 in 2006; oh wait, it's 500, so even less), the games were also very expensive, it had very few if any highly expected games, it wasn't used for popular video formats (unless you consider VCD popular), and it wasn't riding on the wave of one, let alone two very succesful consoles (the leaders of two generations in a row).

Nintendo didn't fall so hard when Sony came to beat them; their marketshare got reduced by 33%, but the trend could be seen coming: Sega drew some marketshare out of Nintendo on the SNES days. On the other hand, PS2 did even better than PS1, both broke records, both had a much bigger sales advantage on their competitors than SNES had on Genesis, even when Sony had a lot more competition than Nintendo (on the NES and SNES days).

I would say it will be neck and neck worldwide between PS3 and 360, with Europe divided almost equally, 360 having an advantage over PS3 in America, and PS3 having an even bigger advantage over 360 in Asia. Wii will be adopted by almost everyone as either a second console, or a first console (being that it won't need price drops at launch), or as an only console as the cheap yet fun alternative. 360 and PS3 will keep getting their exclusive games, but less since they cost a lot to develop for, and their fanbase, while more eager to spend on games (more hardcore should I say?), will be smaller.

Just look at how successful the DS is. Everyone predicted it would flop and that the PSP would rape it... look at what happened. Analysts are rarely right.

I might be wrong, but it's possible. Who would have thought that Mac would have become so popular with the iPod? Before that, a lot of people hated mac because it wasn't compatible. Now everybody loves Mac.

Just wait and see.

Oh, and Cage, learn to read.

amed @ May 16th 2006 12:39AM

I've made up my mind and decided to wait till 2007 to get a system, Im leaning towards PS3 but Wii is looking more interesting.

Plus the only game I'm really excited about is mgs4 which doesnt come out till 2007 so that give me lot of time to decide.
I really hope SOny brings up the rumbling feature on their controller, they lost it cuz of the lawsuit and not cuz of the interferance with motion sensor.

Someone should make a site decided to run a petition to change Sony's mind and make a settlement with the company that sued them

Goobers @ May 16th 2006 1:36AM

amed

it might be too late to "settle" since that's usually while the trial is going on before a judge makes a decision (and the judge has).

at this point, i agree, they should "make nice"... but probably the only why to use Immersion's patented design is to negotiate a licensing deal... and at this point AFTER the court ruling... Immersion could make a killing on Sony (since Sony is the "underdog" in that negotiation).

however, i wonder what exactly do Immersion's various patents cover? maybe Sony can use solenoids instead of a motor (or whatever is different enough from the patents).

TheGuyNextDoor @ May 16th 2006 4:36AM

Or perhaps Sony could get Logitech to make rumble controllers for them, seeing as Logitech are licensed producers of after-market controllers for Playstation, and they settled with Immersion.

Personally, I think Sony was right to stand up to Immersion, as in my opinion, it is paramount to someone patenting the wheel, or the internal combustion engine. Companies seem to patent everything under the sun and it's not productive to the consumer. It's all about the money.

I'm looking at a Wii and PS3, purely because they offer different experiences, which is what it's all about isn't it? I have a decent PC gaming rig, so I have no need for a 360.

Semi @ May 16th 2006 6:31AM

wii is gonnna be a gimmick with only a few companies using the wiimote functionality.
when they do it, it should be good, but there arnt gonnna be that many games.

Playstation could easily make a wiimote like tennis racket or gold club for ps3,

Semi @ May 16th 2006 6:32AM

and screw immersion company for suing sony about the dual shock thing... mofos

chris the marketer @ May 16th 2006 7:18AM

I can't believe the time used to discuss this poll. A online web poll on a freaking GAMING WEBSITE is meaningless. I would trust a market reasearch, but a poll like this is meaningless and not worth your time.

Personally, I'm not putting any bets on Nintendo to pull ahead on this one (especially the over 18 demographic).

Unlike Me @ May 16th 2006 8:39AM

Because one webpoll means everything, right?
And its already flawed because it says Wii is going to win.

Pikachu @ May 16th 2006 8:45AM

Wow, PS3Fanboy has stooped so low that its posted a ..WEBPOLL!?
LOL
I mean, i've seen hundreds of polls that say the 360 is going to win and stuff. What in the world are you dooooing posting webpolls? xD

James @ May 17th 2006 3:26AM

#19,

Semi, that is the most retarded thing I've ever heard. So you're saying that any company is allow to steal someone else's technology without paying for it is alright by you. How about I come to your house and steal all your stuff and if you bitch about it, then you're a mofo.