The great PlayStation 3 gamble
by Adams Briscoe 
{ May 19th 2006 at 1:30PM }
Here's a very interesting analysis of why Sony has to take the PS3 to the bank, or go down in flames trying. With Sony having been king of the games industry for so long, they are having to pay heavy to keep that position. Yes, they are behind a year. And yes, the price of the console is causing some unrest.Even so, the success of the console will dictate a huge direction for the company for several reasons.
The most basic economical concept they're dealing with is loss and profit. Sony will be spending millions of dollars trying to market and sell this system at a price that will hurt them in the beginning, but hopefully pull them through later. Should the PS3 take off with consumers, it will enable Sony to produce Blu-ray components and the Cell chip with greater efficiency. This is a huge step because the PlayStation 3 is also their entry into the next-gen DVD war. And with the Cell processor poised to be the cornerstone for other Sony consumer electronics, the success of this upcoming console is a do-or-die scenario.
Clearly it is not all about the games anymore.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
SuicideNinja @ May 19th 2006 1:58PM
I think the Bluray is more feasible battle for them. The Bluray battle, although a tough one (with average consumers), is much easier than the Cell processor battle (with the computing world).
With the Cell, they are competing with widely accepted types of processor architectures. Moving to the Cell forces programmers to change their thinking and a lot of their coding habits. That's not an easy task.
Beyond that, we all know that Windows is the dominating operating system. Although it could be reworked for the Cell, all prior programs compiled for x86 architecture wouldn't work. That is a big problem.
It's one uphill battle there. However, it does beg the question of when we can escape the x86 architecture.
alienclay @ May 19th 2006 5:54PM
correct me if i'm wrong but isn't the first place sony wants to use cell aside from ps3 is in various consumer electronics like TVs and other blu-ray players and not PCs? (at least not at first).
the ps3 blu-ray player, BD specs and capicity, and the ps2's market dominance is probably why BD has more major movie studios on it than hd-dvd. saying sony NEEDS the ps3 is blatently apperent to even the most casual observer.
Goobers @ May 19th 2006 6:52PM
to suicideninja, alienclay is right
the Cell processor is NOT targeted at your PC... unless it plans on being your next graphics chip.
the Cell is highly specialized... to the point is sacrifices some functions, preventing it from doing normal computations of a "CPU".
it works well in "Server" systems as part of a "blade" system, because these servers are used in specialized fashion... most recently announced is in the medical field, where they can animate the human "map" for doctors to visually see a person, in real time. imagine a 3D MRI or CAT scan... you could do it now without the Cell, but it's a bit slower.
SuicideNinja @ May 19th 2006 6:59PM
"correct me if i'm wrong but isn't the first place sony wants to use cell aside from ps3 is in various consumer electronics like TVs and other blu-ray players and not PCs? (at least not at first)."
Ask yourself this: Do you need that type of a processor in those devices? An 8 SPE, 1 core, multithreading processor? With a Bluray player, it may help with decoding and scaling, but is entirely unnecessary. Unless there are "lesser" Cells they've not exposed.
A processor like the cell belongs in data processing computers (aka servers), networking and telecommunications equipment. It could really shine in those areas if it performs as expected. As far as TVs and bluray players...it won't matter.
jon @ May 19th 2006 7:20PM
It seems like even the Studios are dragging their feet at releasing HD-DVD titles. No one is in a rush for this next generation of DVD players...not the consumers...not the studios...not Microsoft...only Sony. Out there all by themselves pushing a format that is crippled by it's non existence, lack of studio support (I don't care what you say...studio support = movies coming out...no movies = no studio support)& high cost to consumers, studios and manufacturers.
boots (former bd) @ May 19th 2006 9:15PM
Suicide Ninja:
In fact, there *are* lesser cells. In fact, PS3 uses a lesser cell (meaning, only 7 out of 8 cores are enabled). Sony said they want to use "mini-cells" on mobile phones (either single or dual core). If there ever is a PSP2, they could probably use a cuadruple core one for it. TVs could use them too.
Perhaps if they improve upon its design, they could overclock it and put a few of those together with a GPU for a PS4, if they manage to survive with PS3.
Remember that Toshiba is also rooting for the Cell to succeed, so we could eventually see consumer electronics from both Toshiba and Sony employing the Cell processor, if it succeeds.
And since we are talking about the great PS3 gamble now, if they go bankrupt, Microsoft would be very wise to buy Sony. Think of all the ways it could benefit from acquiring Sony.
PS3Fan @ May 20th 2006 2:26AM
isn't Sony taking a gamble with Bluray? Yes, Yes Bluray is good and all, but seriously how many of us "gamers" will use it to play Bluray Discs, i remebered when people used the same argument for Xbox, "dont you know its a DVD player TOO!". Its suppose to perform as a gaming machine first then as a bluray player.
Goobers @ May 20th 2006 6:23AM
"7. isn't Sony taking a gamble with Bluray? Yes, Yes Bluray is good and all, but seriously how many of us "gamers" will use it to play Bluray Discs, i remebered when people used the same argument for Xbox, "dont you know its a DVD player TOO!". Its suppose to perform as a gaming machine first then as a bluray player.
Posted at 2:26AM on May 20th 2006 by PS3Fan 0 stars"
do you deny that the game developers can make use of blu-ray? doesn't that then mean, gamers WILL make use of blu-ray? it's a media format... not content. it's like an audio CD verses a data CD... they're both CDs.
i just saw a PS2 game that spanned TWO DVDs... how long would it take to go over that?
boots (former bd) @ May 20th 2006 8:00AM
Goobers, pardon my ignorance, but which is that game?
I've been saying for a long time on other threads here that Blu-ray is "needed" (or at least, a big plus) for gaming and I also explained why. Search for my comments or I'll put them up here later.
Jason @ May 20th 2006 3:09PM
I am kind of dissapointed in Sony... I don't really favor any of the game consoles out there and I am not a PC gaming nut but I do know that there are TONS more PC gamers out there than there are console games (even if you combine all 3 of the big consoles)... Why is Sony going the route of the Cell? Doesn't it make it harder for dig game studios to write games that work on it? Doesn't it make them have to write drastically different code bases to take advantage of the cell vs. the PC? PCs will most likly be more powerful by the time the PS3 is released so wont that be the focus of most of the game developers? I mean... why would I want to develop something that could only be used on the PS3... I would think most studios (other than Sony) are going to focus on making something that works on the PC XBox and PS3... why stray so far away from the standards?
The same goes with the Blu-Ray drive... I would only expect to get maybe 4 years out of one of these "next-gen" consoles... it seems like the next gen HD movie format will play itself out in the next 2 years or so... doesn't that seem like they are forcing the drive on the gamers and the developers? If you produce a blu-ray instead of a DVD it WILL cost you more... if the games don't need the space will they be made on a DVD instead? If not they seems like it is a just another thing different that the developers will have to do with the PS3.
Also... it is my understanding that the studio support is there because Blu-Ray doesn't allow managed copy and studios like that... I would think that the studios are not "in it for the format" but rather in it for the copy protection and DRM.
funkbass23 @ May 20th 2006 6:13PM
Jon, what you're saying is completely ludicrous about Blu-Ray. The reason why there are no Blu-Ray discs out yet is because they are all coming out in June!!!!!! Not to mention, the amount of movies coming out alongside the release of the players will be greater than the HD-DVD offerings made up until that day. Last time I checked, the PS3 is coming out in November. By then there will be several hundred Blu-Ray discs on the market to purchase. According to an article on HD Beat, they are on average cheaper to buy on Amazon than HD-DVDs.
Sooooo.......Blu-Ray movies will exist come November. Plus, despite what you want to think, there are many major studios supporting them, much more than HD-DVD. Saying that there's no studio support for them because there's nothing out is the same as saying that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray had no studio support last year because there was nothing out yet. I guess also that the PS3 has no game development support at all, right? Well, according to your logic if there's no PS3 games out yet then there must be no support.
Wow!
Goobers @ May 20th 2006 7:27PM
Grandia III (Square-Enix)
although... I have to admit... I didn't play the game... and the box listed that it had an anime "episode"... so could've just been only the anime on the second disc. if i were in a better financial situation (ie, not being poor ATM), i would.
but even though i agree with you... it feels like there are only two or three of us that even "remember" that the blu-ray in the PS3 is also being used for GAMES, and not 'just' movies.
Fan @ May 20th 2006 10:55PM
Hi Jason
I have som comments and ansvers for you =)
"Why is Sony going the route of the Cell? Doesn't it make it harder for dig game studios to write games that work on it? Doesn't it make them have to write drastically different code bases to take advantage of the cell vs. the PC?"
The code is not drastically different. Main difference is that they need to divide the code up between the different SPUs and the fact that the SPUs are in order(x86 are OOO(out of order) processors). Divinding up the code is now becoming mandatory for games since most processors are going multi core, like intel core duo. So its something the coders need to get used to anyway. I do however support Sony going a different route than x86(pc) or powerpc(xbox 360 and old macs). The Cell may be more suitable to handle games and other multimedia than a x86, but the problem, as you state, is that coders are more used to the x86. Time will show if they end up loving it or hating it.
"The same goes with the Blu-Ray drive... I would only expect to get maybe 4 years out of one of these "next-gen" consoles..."
Expect more than that, the ps2 is going on its 7th year now.
"Also... it is my understanding that the studio support is there because Blu-Ray doesn't allow managed copy and studios like that... I would think that the studios are not "in it for the format" but rather in it for the copy protection and DRM."
I think the movie studios are in it for the movies and the money. Either way you are mistaken as blu-ray allows for MMC(mandatory managed copy).
Source: http://www.blu-ray.com/faq/#bluray_managed_copy
Jim N @ May 21st 2006 12:01AM
There is allot of discussion on here about Blu-Ray verses HD-DVD. I am curious has anyone gotten their hands on an HD-DVD or a Blu-Ray player? I was listening to the Twit.tv podcast and Patrick Norton on there said he got a hold of a HD-DVD player. He seemed very unimpressed. He said the picture was great, but not that great. The box itself was some sort of a Pentium 3 computer that actually had to boot up or at least that is how he described it. He said there is an improvement but nothing as drastic as VHS to DVD.
My question is do we really need a new media format? I am thinking that digital downloading is not to far off. We are already seeing this as a huge success in the music industry, and now networks in America are starting to offer TV programming online for download the day after episodes are broadcast. I really think that High Def movies are something that is desired, but I think most of us would welcome the idea of being able to download the media to some device that could play it. A device that would offer a web based applications that would allow me to set up a queue, or process requests similar to NetFlix or any other similar service. Then simply download the movie in some High Def format to this box or media PC. Once the movie is played, it could held onto for someone else in the family to view. Once removed the next movie in your queue could begin being downloaded.
Now that said for my computer I am very excited to have a high capacity media format. Backing up MP3 files and home movie files is starting to get beyond the 7 gig capability of DVD RW.
I think there is a market there for high capacity media but I just do not think that movies are where that market will be. Game will eventually get there and need for more then 7 gig, but honestly I am scared what they would charge me for a game that 25 gig or more.
SuicideNinja @ May 21st 2006 2:41PM
Actually, they've already made a cell-powered server.
Let me find it here....
http://www.linuxdevices.com/news/NS3591350722.html
This info was on engadget and joystiq a while back.
I don't think they are going for "home PCs" yet. They need to start with Servers first because that's where the Cell will shine as a processor.
My point was that Windows (let's say Server 2003) could be modified for the cell architecture, but any addition server software written for x86 architecture would not work. That's what they are facing.
With Bluray, they just have to convince consumers that they actually need HD movies. That's a hard battle, but doesn't have as many "professionals" (aka programmers) in the way.
Fan @ May 21st 2006 6:39PM
"My point was that Windows (let's say Server 2003) could be modified for the cell architecture, but any addition server software written for x86 architecture would not work. That's what they are facing."
Windows will never ever get modified to work on a Cell processor. Sony invited Microsoft to make a working Windows version on the Cell but Microsoft declined.
Also I would not say that the Cell processor really shines in the server market. I would say its thought to be good in any situation were there is a need to do alot of things simultaniously.
Guillermo @ May 22nd 2006 12:39AM
I was just visiting the Magic Box site and I find this:
" Yahoo! Japan recently surveyed 20,000 users for their opinions on the PS3 retail price:
* 8% (1548 votes) - I will buy the console on the launch day even if the price is high
* 19% (3725 votes) - Undecided due to the high price
* 25% (4814 votes) - I will buy when the price is reduced
* 26% (5171 votes) - Plan to buy when price is reduced
* 24% (4742 votes) - Presently have no interest to buy"
Japanese have been known to be early adopters of new technology (Blu Ray drives have been in the japanese market for a while), so if they do not see the advantage of the PS3 as a cheap alternative to an expensive Blu Ray movie player then Sony is in trouble. Their reaction to the PS3 price surprised me.
Unlike Me @ May 22nd 2006 9:16AM
Watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH2w2l1JTs4&search=sony%20e3
PS3 owns!!!!1!
Jim @ May 25th 2006 7:53AM
#17: do you have a URL for this?
Guillermoj @ May 25th 2006 7:52PM
Jim
http://www.the-magicbox.com/gaming.htm
Scroll down toward a little bit after the middle of the page
Invincibul @ May 30th 2006 7:15AM
Xbox 360 Vs Playstation 3 : The Real Price Comparison
Microsoft Xbox 360: Price US $ 399
The Microsoft Xbox 360, is said to be cheaper than the PlayStation 3, but further research on the subject reflects that infact the Xbox 360 is costlier than the PlayStation 3. Just compare the features and the overall prices including all the accessories.
The Console: US $399
Features: 20 GB Hard-Disk, 2.4 GHz Wireless controllers (upto 4), Power PC processor (Three cores at 3.2 GHz each), 3 USB ports, Wi-fi is optional with a add-on adapter (802.11a, 802.11b, and 802.11g) sold separately for US $100, External HD-DVD drive will retail for about US $200, Online Gaming Service 'Live' for $49 per year for actual playability. Micro downloads will be available for Game Content. HDMI add-on port for the Xbox 360 will be probably about US $50. Number of Xbox 360 titles = 160 titles. About 1000 Xbox titles to be backward compatible with the Xbox 360. Total Games Playable on the Xbox 360 = 1160 Games.
Total Price of the Xbox 360 Including all the Accessories = US $399 + US $200 + US $100 +
US $50 + US $ 49 = US $798.
Sony PlayStation 3: Price US $ 599
Features: 60 GB Hard-Disk, Integrated Bluetooth, Integrated Wi-fi, Motion Sensitive Bluetooth Controller, Cell Processor (Seven cores at 3.2 GHz each), Inbuilt Blu-ray drive, Inbuilt HDMI port, Free Online Service dubbed 'PlayStation HUB' with free Online Gaming. But downloadable Game content would be through micro payments. Number of launch titles for PlayStation 3 = 15*. Number of PlayStation playable titles including PlayStation 2 are said to be about 15,000 titles*. All this for only US $599.
Which is Cheaper PlayStation 3 or the Xbox 360, see for yourself