DFC analysts say Sony's PS3 may "end up third"
by Nick Doerr 
{ Jul 3rd 2006 at 10:30AM }
DFC Intelligence -- a market-forecasting agency -- have recently released their likely scenarios regarding the upcoming war o' consoles. They have an interesting set of scenario guidelines/factors they used in setting up how Sony would turn out. How'd they turn out? They say If we look at the bulleted list on the site, the first three, summarized as:
- Current market position
- Current software library
- Other consoles' current software libraries
There is no question Sony rocks the socks off of analysts for the first three points. The rest of the list? A little harder to discern a clear victor. These points consider:
- Expecting upcoming software for the PS3 (debatably good or bad)
- Upcoming software for competitors (debatably good or bad also)
- Price of PS3 measured against rivals
- Chance/amount of price drop
- Hardware/WOW! (NOT World of Warcraft...) factor
A lot of debate had been risen from the fact GTA4 won't be exclusive to the PS3, however, according to DFC Intelligence, less than 20% of PS2 owners bought any of the titles. In fact, " Without GTA buyers, the PS2 would still have outsold the competition by more than 3 to 1." Nice. That's good news, even if speculation. So, will PS3 fall prey to the worst case scenario, or manage to stay on top (or even second) by the skin of its beautiful, beautiful teeth? Again, the Tokyo Game Show will hopefully give PS3 more positive press.
[Edit: changed GTA4 won't be coming ... to GTA4 won't be exclusive to. Thanks, J. Dock]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
lloyd @ Jul 3rd 2006 11:21AM
the PS3 could really use some positive press right about now. since E3 there's been so much bad press about the console involving everything from pricing to controller design.
i'm holding out hope that sony can pull it together and deliver the goods with the PS3. since i bought my 360 i really haven't felt like it has delivered that much more than the original xbox did and really don't feel like i've entered into what everyone is calling "the next-gen of gaming."
i think what will really make the difference in that list of points are 2-5
* Current software library
* Other consoles' current software libraries
* Expecting upcoming software for the PS3
* Upcoming software for competitors
Sony obviously has the edge when it comes to current game library simply because of the sheer volume and diversity of what's available... there really is something for everyones taste.
As far as future titles only time will tell, but judging from the past i think they may do well globally whereas Microsoft may gain a slight edge in the U.S. simply based on the pricing of the machines.
zebwinz @ Jul 3rd 2006 12:33PM
"Sony obviously has the edge when it comes to current game library simply because of the sheer volume and diversity of what's available..."
I'm sorry but why would you pay $600 just to play the games you already have, that's not next gen at all. The fact that many of the games will not be PS3 exclusive only further adds to the fact that a cheaper console (360) with only slightly less impressive graphics will indeed sell better. Add that to the head start MS has and Sony looks to indeed fall into third (or second if the Wii just blows and gets no support like the Gamecube).
J. Dock @ Jul 3rd 2006 1:42PM
When did we go from "GTA4 non-exclusive but coming to the PS3" to "the fact GTA4 won't be coming to the PS3?" The link in the article doesn't take me to a place that says that. Dubya tee eff?
jc @ Jul 3rd 2006 2:04PM
If Sony hasn't got much p[ostive press by now what's to say they will in Tokyo? Let's face it things are looking gloomy for the ps3. The ps3 wasn't the hot item at E3 this year. I'm not saying that says everything but it says alot. The buzz for the ps3 seems to be quite more on the negative side lately also. Nintendo is where the ps2 was last console wars if you ask me.
Armin @ Jul 3rd 2006 2:48PM
Should have used another image than watermarked stock photo
sputnik @ Jul 3rd 2006 2:49PM
The PS3 is headed to be the Titanic of consoles in North America. The tip of iceburg being that nobody cares about Blu-Ray. And if you take that away what the heck else does Sony have that is better than the competition?
Even those that see value in the PS3 over it's competitors will be hard pressed to afford it.
What a nightmare.
lloyd @ Jul 3rd 2006 2:49PM
zebwinz, when i said "Sony obviously has the edge when it comes to current game library simply because of the sheer volume and diversity of what's available..." the point being made was that the xbox community has been throwing a fit over backwards compatibility and the fact that they can't play some of their favorite older games since day one, whereas that won't be such an issue with the PS3.
I didn't expect to spend $400 just to play games i already have on the 360 but that's just what a lot of people are doing until more new games are available.
with backwards compatibility being built in to the PS3 out of the box you have more options... like putting that PS2 and your less played games on ebay to help subsidize the cost of the PS3 while holding on to that cherished copy of "FFVII" or "The Guy Game"
ndoerr @ Jul 3rd 2006 3:57PM
@5: Yeah, probably should have noticed the watermark before setting it up. Apologies, but don't let it detract from the news too much!
SK @ Jul 3rd 2006 8:54PM
"Sony obviously has the edge when it comes to current game library simply because of the sheer volume and diversity of what's available..."
Actually, the Wii will have the biggest back-catalogue with the Virtual Console adding games from the last twenty years. Over 50% of the PS2 games were multi-platform.