Until 2008, Wii shall outsell everyone else
by Nick Doerr 
{ Mar 3rd 2007 at 4:00PM }
Hah! What a fantastic subject line. Man, using Nintendo's new console as a pun never gets tired. You know what else never gets tired? The firm released these statements: "IDC believes hardware shipments of Nintendo's Wii will capture a little more than a third of the worldwide market by 2008, rising slightly above Sony's PS3 and Microsoft's Xbox 360...Nintendo is the only one of the three manufacturers working to grow its accessible market for its hardware and software by broadening its audience beyond the traditional market." They go on to talk about how the hardcore market is split between Microsoft and Sony -- that market is smaller, too. Obviously. This all makes sense, really. The Wii is definitely being reported as the "it" item not just for gamers but for those outside the typically targeted demographic. It may lose some steam after next year, but by that time it might have a huge lead over the other systems. What do you guys think?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Killer @ Mar 3rd 2007 5:28PM
I Care why? You can predict anything, it doesn't mean it's coming true. I'll believe it when I see it in 2008. If they are right (which they usually aren't for any of the consoles) then congrats. Till then Don't CARE.
bootsielon @ Mar 3rd 2007 6:49PM
That is, until people realize they're not getting more than a gamecube with a funky controller, and/or the novelty wears off. I was the most ardent Wii enthusiast (unbelievable, but true; hell, a blatant Nintendo fanboy) until I played it, and realized it's an overpriced gamecube with games that are only worth playing 30 minutes at best and with friends (at parties, not online). Nintendo sure has Zelda, Mario and some mini-games, but that's not enough. I'm definitely going to have it, just like any console, but it's not the end all be all of gaming like everybody thinks. Color me unimpressed with everything Next-gen is offering at the moment anyway.
Later on, Nintendo will never be able to offer the experiences PS3 and Xbox 360 will, and PS3 will be able to replicate a lot of the experiences that the Wii will, and in some ways surpass it. If Microsoft gets their shit together too, they'll be able to do something similar.
I bet these analysis means "til 2008", when PS3 and 360 will be able to catch up to acceptable mass market prices (for what they offer), making the price advantage for the Wii irrelevant. Gamecube and dreamcast were always cheaper than PS2 and Xbox.
SuicideNinja @ Mar 3rd 2007 8:48PM
"PS3 will be able to replicate a lot of the experiences that the Wii will, and in some ways surpass it."
How do you figure, boots? The motion control in the PS3 controller is nothing like the Wii's. Not only that, but the two-handed controller design is limiting for motion control.
The Wii does wear thin fairly quickly. Wii Sports is great...but every other game I've played, including Zelda, just doesn't do it for me. We'll have to see if either 1st or 3rd party manufacturers can come up with some solid games. It doesn't seem like that is going to happen right now.
The future for the PS3 seems dim for the moment as well. I just can't stand the stupid thing, and I don't even bother looking at its game sections in the stores. It's going to be a few months before anything good comes.
Boots is right on the money that saying everything at the moment is rather unimpressive. I've not been excited about a game since Dead Rising. Sure, Gears was nice, but I didn't find myself going back to it. Resistance was a joke as far as I'm concerned. So it's been awhile.
We need some AAA titles and quick. Any console will do.
fallingdove @ Mar 3rd 2007 9:38PM
I don't think this will happen. Wii is a fad. Its just not very fun anymore. I haven't played mine in weeks. Its a gimicky system, and it has definitely lost its flare for me.
Burnt Meatloaf @ Mar 3rd 2007 11:38PM
Sony has good software alliances. If they could just get the price of the PS3 down, developers will feel more comfortable.
I find it a very bad sign that the European PS3 will get rid of the PS2 chip, but will still cost a fortune (VAT doesn't boost the price *that* much). They've completely lost focus of what consoles are supposed to be: affordable.
Frankie @ Mar 4th 2007 12:34AM
Analysts are useless because they have as much info as common laygamers like us. They predict from what is happening *now* and those can change with a flip of a coin(just ask the PS3).
With that said, if what they predict comes to fruition, and the Wii dominates, there is very little chance it would suddenly lose steam. Remember the old adage that software sells systems? It won't change if the Wii dominates.
Once it is clear that it is dominant, software support will shift to it and will sell even more system as a result. Even more software support is shifted from both the 360 and the PS3 and an even bigger number of systems are sold. Losing steam once a top console reached a point of no return has never happened before in the history of video games. That scenario is just not very likely, if not an outright improbability.
The cycle will only end once it's next gen counterpart is announced and each company starts from scratch. This actually applies to any consoles, not just the Wii. The PS2 is a great example of this catch 22.
It doesnt really matter if you think it's a fad or not. It's actually a *good* thing and desireable to have so much hype(especially if that hype is backed by actual sales, which the Wii clearly have) over the short and medium term because of the nature of the gaming console business(hardware->software->hardware->software), so the fad argument is just FUD by the fanboys of the other hardware. This is also the reason the first year or two is probably the most important time in a system's life and prospects.
Frankie @ Mar 4th 2007 12:38AM
"The Xbox 360 has sold 10.6 million systems worldwide, while Wii has only sold 4.7 million, and Playstation 3 has only sold 1.6 million."
The 360 took over 12 months to get 10 million units sold to actual customers. The Wii did close to half that in a little over three months. And it is still supply constraint. And demand is still there. It is also doing well in all three major territories. The 360 is only doing well in NA, mediocre in Europe and very poor in Japan.
Next-Gen-Gamer @ Mar 4th 2007 1:10AM
Lol @ PS3 Fanboys
Common response: Why can't these other fanboys just leave us alone?!
And then this is said...
"Hah! What a fantastic subject line. Man, using Nintendo's new console as a pun never gets tired."
It doesn't get much more ignorant than that.
SKI @ Mar 4th 2007 1:41AM
@ Next-Gen-Gamer
No, not ignorant, hypocritical.
ni22o83 @ Mar 7th 2007 12:16AM
In response to Directv hd sucks:
Sure the Xbox360 may have outsold the Wii by a few 100,000 or so units, but the Wii sold out, where the Xbox360 did not. Had Nintendo, who had the most systems available at launch of any system ever, been able to output more units it would have easily surpassed the Xbox360. And lets not forget to point out that Nintendo's other system, the DS, also sold out over the holiday season, and like its comrade, it still remains impossible to find on store shelves even with being out for more then two years. The DS is also the fastest selling system of all time, based on pace to 5 million, reaching it in around 10 months, the Wii will get there in less then half that time. Leading to your next point. The Xbox360 has sold 10.6 million units in just over a year, and that Nintendo has sold 4.7 million in just 3 months. Quick math would provide at that rate the Wii will be at 18.8 million in the same time allotment that you've placed on Microsoft's system. The real point that should be made is that both systems are out performing the PS3 by themselves, and when combined to form the real system, the Wii60, Sony will never have a chance.
Playstation Xtreme @ Mar 4th 2007 2:20AM
"The Wii is a fad it'll soon wear off, Its gimmicky, Blah, Blah, Blah"
Thats what they said about Pokemon, Thats what they said about the DS...
bootsielon @ Mar 4th 2007 4:23AM
SuicideNinja:
I believe PS3 can replicate some of the Wii experience, and in some cases do it better do to more available buttons. The Wii isn't targeted to the hardcore, so it's natural that it lacks buttons. But I feel that the PS3 controller mixes the right amount of buttons with tilting; of course it might be kind of tacked on, but with fl0w, and the even much better looking and sounding Rub a Dub (by the previews), it seems that it might be a great add-on for a classical controller. If it's not a substitute, it is somewhat comparable and the trade off is getting all PS3 can offer on the hardware and on the software sides. Wii would be better if it was a DVD player; it doesn't matter that we have like 5 on our homes already, it's that it is a sleek piece of equipment which would make the 250 buck spending a little easier to swallow.
Resistance was good, not great. Gears has great graphics and it's fun, but the amount of time it takes to finish is ridiculously too little. And seriously, Wii Sports a killer app? Zelda is on gamecube! It's not like metacritic or any other gamesite/gamemag says the gamecube game is severely inferior to its Wii counterpart.
Where are the Japanese RPGs on all 3 consoles? Even the PSP is looking better than any of the three home machines right now. Final Fantasy, White Knight Story, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Dragon Quest and a Wii only Zelda can't come soon enough.
FrankTheCrank @ Mar 4th 2007 8:45AM
I own both the PS3 and Wii.
It's amazing that the Wii has done what it has done with it's subpar graphics. It is "new", has a low price point and "new" motion controls, this is what sold the Wii. And don't forget the brand, Nintendo is synonymous with gaming, period. I enjoy my Wii, though I'm finding the graphics to be horrible at times and the games lacking serious depth. Wii excels at Mini games. Motion controls are becoming very cool. And never ever forget, FIRST PARTY TITLES, Nintendo's biggest strength.
The PS3 on the other hand, though slow out of the gate, is really starting to show it's prowess. VF5 is amazing. Flow is cool. Motorstorm and F1 are awesome as well. Rumble on the way. Things are looking real good for the PS3, finally.
360? I think their going to be facing a tough year up ahead. I think their starting to trend downward. The newness worn off....the 20GB drive too small and no upgrade, yet. And at $399, it's starting to look very expensive. For an extra $100 you can get a HD Blu Ray player. No motion controls either.
Killer @ Mar 4th 2007 9:08AM
@bootsielon
"Gears has great graphics and it's fun, but the amount of time it takes to finish is ridiculously too little."
Very true, But Epic said they weren't going for the single player anyway, it's where Multiplayer it shines. :) Agreed that SP is short, it still doesn't stop me from play it over and over becuase of the graphics.
@ FrankTheCrank
"360? I think their going to be facing a tough year up ahead. I think their starting to trend downward. The newness worn off....the 20GB drive too small and no upgrade, yet. And at $399, it's starting to look very expensive. For an extra $100 you can get a HD Blu Ray player. No motion controls either."
1. I'm a 360 owner and I never use up my 20GB harddrive even after I have 10 demos on it and 20 videos still have 6 gb that I never use up.
2. "And at $399, it's starting to look very expensive." What?! And a 600 dollar console isnt? some people don't want to have a Blue-Ray or HD DVD player.
3. "For an extra $100 you can get a HD Blu Ray player." Wait I can get a BR player for my 360 for 100 dollars?! wtf. It's a HD DVD add on.
4. "No motion controls either." Thank god. I don't want motion sensor controls, I hated the past controller that were like that. I like the old fashion rumble controllers. Besides, It's better to go your own path then follow other people. I don't want a nintendo motion knock-off.
^^^ I have heard though that it is entertaining, but I'm not a person that like to get that invovled in my game, It's a strategy thing, I don't want to be preoccupied by what is happening when I tilt my control, when I want to be looking at the horizon to figure out what my next step is. (that's why I like gears.:) ) Everyone's different though, that's why we have 3 different consoles.
FrankTheCrank @ Mar 4th 2007 9:46AM
@14 - Killer
I respect your opinion. I just wanted to get the price thing out of the way. If you compare apples to apples, the PS3 20GB matches up exactly with the Premium 360. Both have 20GB, wireless controller and RJ45 port. So, apples to apples....for an extra $100 dollars, you can get a HD Blu-Ray player. Some people, as yourself, could care less, they don't want a HD player, that's fine...but if you are one that collects movies, this is definitely a great selling point.
The whole motion control thing is still up in the air in my mind. Three to five years down the road, we'll really know if motion controls are here to stay. For right now, it can be considered a gimmick, but with the Wii having this feature as a core component of it's system and the Wii selling so well, this could very well change the face of gaming.
I think Microsoft will introduce a motion controller by Christmas. And Sony will have a "rumble" Sixaxis by then as well.
Killer @ Mar 4th 2007 10:27AM
@FrankTheCrank
I Agree to that. lol
I respect your opinion as well.
"I think Microsoft will introduce a motion controller by Christmas."
Maybe, I dunno Microsoft seems to not want to seeing how whne they first brought motion sensor controls to the market it fell on it's face.
I'll be surprised if they do bring out one. I really think it will have alot to do with the Camera for the 360. Microsoft has bought patents and such that would pin-point the body and translate it. I think that might be Microsofts introduction into the future. Totemball was horrible, but you never know they could make future games that use the camera better.
Everyone also has to remeber that the Wii is faster to make then the PS3 and 360. It's smaller, it doesn't have a dvd player, It's just cheaper to make then both of the other consoles. That's why they sold 4 million or so consoles in 3 months, they can produce them faster. The Ps3 and 360's production couldn't match that out put the wii can when they started out.
Dolla Dolla @ Mar 4th 2007 1:31PM
Right now, the Wii is "in". To deny that is foolish at best, and idiocy at the worst. Everything Nintendo ships is being sold. I have yet to see a Wii on sale, which is ridiculous.
The PS3's price is its biggest stepping stone. And although Sony is making strides to reduce the cost (read: removing the EE from the PS3 for the European release), customers won't see these price benefits until further down the road (earliest, Christmas 2007: latest, 2009).
The 360 has a healthy library. It narrowly outsold the PS3 in January, which doesn't say too much. But, February's NPD should be interesting. I think the moment the PS3 outsells the 360, Microsoft will drop the price of their system. Or, assuming the Zephyr is about to be released(May), it will drop in price then.
Although it is still too early to determine a winner by any means, the PS3 is lagging behind in sales and needs a killer app that will move systems SOON.
Garrett @ Mar 4th 2007 4:18PM
This is completely idiotic. Sony and whoever posted this article need to get a clue. Wii has sold half of what the 360 has sold in a fourth of the time. Just like Ni22o83 said, "The Xbox360 has sold 10.6 million units in just over a year, and that Nintendo has sold 4.7 million in just 3 months. Quick math would provide at that rate the Wii will be at 18.8 million in the same time allotment that you've placed on Microsoft's system."
10.6 M+4.7M=15.3 M. How many consoles has Sony sold? 1.6 M. about 1/14 of what the Wii60 manufactured. also, the prices play into the console sales, too. Each PS3 console is about $550 (in the middle of the two different versions), the 360 is about $400, and the Wii is about $250. even though the Wii is less than HALF the price of a PS3, Nintendo has gotten over double the money. Oh, and there's like... one good game (Resistance) on the PS3. The Wii and 360 have a ton of good games. Don't even try to tell me about Motorstorm, either. I played it at Gamestop and it was terrible. The controls were clunky and took SO long to load.
To sum it all up, the analysts are right.
JD @ Mar 4th 2007 7:06PM
"Nintendo is the only one of the three manufacturers working to grow its accessible market for its hardware and software by broadening its audience beyond the traditional market." They go on to talk about how the hardcore market is split between Microsoft and Sony -- that market is smaller, too."
That says it all. Are you casual or are you hardcore? If you're casual, good for you, but as for me, I'm hardcore. The fact of the matter, regardless of sales numbers, is that the Wii doesn't hold a candle to the PS3 or 360. Unless the games get really downgraded, games on the PS3 or 360 can never appear on the Wii.
So at the end of the day, it all comes down to what we want to play and how we want to play it. Just because the Wii outsells the PS3 doesn't mean it's better. The Wii has a larger target audience and it's able to capture it - that's what makes the Wii a success.
Think of it like this: would you rather drive a Corolla or a BMW? Just because you see more Corollas on the road doesn't mean that Corollas are better cars. Understand?
vizunary @ Mar 5th 2007 12:25AM
The Wii is a toy.
maverick_saturn_626 @ Mar 5th 2007 5:28AM
Wii is dominating 360, if the demand keeps up anything like the way it has thus far for Wii, Wii would surpass 360 in terms of sales by the end of the year.
Besides, Wii has worldwide popularity, 360 only has America to talk about, 60% of the sales so far came from bloody America, and that won't cut it, 4.7 sold in less then half a year is damn good and is nothing short of it. Anyone who says otherwise is on drugs.
360 fans stop being so stupid, if you don't wanna get burnt, stay out of the kitchen. 360 sells worse then frog legs over here in the UK, and thats just the UK part of Europe, wanna talk about the rest? And as for Japan, the 360 is as welcomed there as a man with "Anime Sucks" written across his back running through the cities of Japan. Just because 360 has sold 10mil doesn't mean it will remain at the top, it has been less then a year, call it a fad or not, the Wii has lots of potential and is so far doing better then 360 did.
As for PS3, PS3 has some support, its not as if it doesnt, Sony just needs to pull up its trousers, because right now, with thier trousers and boxers down, people will feel embarresesed to go near them. Once they put thier trousers on and stick the sunglasses on with loads of great games, the popularity will come back. The likes of Lair and White Knight are two minor examples of games we look forward to on PS3. But where the hell are they?
Pawsie @ Mar 5th 2007 12:05PM
I think many people are overlooking the article.. and failing to see why it's important. "Nintendo is the only one of the three manufacturers working to grow its accessible market for its hardware and software by broadening its audience beyond the traditional market." and "the hardcore market is split between Microsoft and Sony -- that market is smaller..."
All the comments disregarding the article.. are from the --core video game audience--. Many people can describe the wii as a fad... but I think they fail to miss why it's a fad. It's a fad because more people are interested in it. That's why it's unfair to compair the PS3 to the Wii... the PS3 is meant for hard core gamers.. hard core gamers is a very small portion of the general population.. The majority of the general population won't be interested in the new systems...
This include the consumer many people ignore... children. No freaking way they're getting a PS3 or an Xbox 360 along the ages of 7 to 12..It doesn't matter which one has the best graphic.. if they're less than likely to get the system..
Pawsie @ Mar 5th 2007 12:14PM
"#22. The Wii is a toy"
I've been waiting for a long time to say this... YES the Wii is a TOY. It's a little cheap toy with a lot of little games. There's nothing in comparison to the PS3 or the Xbox 360. To say the least, it's the smallest of the 3 systems. it can not directly compete with Sony or Microsoft
But again.. that's the _point_.. it's a toy everyone if not anyone can play if they choose so. Half the entertainment industry is about little children, PG 13 Movies, and toy development.. There's more little kids than there are adults.. twice as much. If teenagers, adults, and senior citizens can get hooked on one of these nintendo toys... it leaves room for them to buy more and give nintendo a profit.
To try to dismiss it as 'just' a toy... is silly, that's one of it's selling points. A cheap toy that fun to play...