New RAR metric decides what'll happen to third-party devs sans Sony
by Nick Doerr 
{ Apr 16th 2007 at 4:00PM }
Former Susquehanna analysts Jason Kraft and Chris Kwak raise this important question in a recent... analysis: "This biggest question is this: What will the market share of the three console platforms look like in five years, and how will this impact each publisher?" They find this question more important than revenue acquired due to in-game advertising or if big titles will be downloadable, or if Halo 3 and GTAIV will squeeze third party titles. Kwak-Kraft (teehee) observed various trends and came up with results for four of the biggest third-party developers, which we've summarized for you. They developed something called the Revenue Attach Rate as a basic metric measurement for the gaming market -- it seems to study where the market share matters most for which developer (Sony would clearly benefit most from the PS3, for an extremely simple example... as it stands, Capcom would benefit from a higher RAR with the XBox 360). Anyway, here are the third-party developer findings:
- EA: If Sony share bleeds, more realistic franchises should move to the XBox (Madden) while moving others like Tiger Woods Golf to the Wii.
- Activision: If Sony bleeds its market share, Activision would benefit most by moving to the XBox, especially with their recently acquired Guitar Hero franchise. Call of Duty sold better on XBox anyway.
- THQ: Doesn't matter. They've got an equal footing in all consoles.
- Take-Two: They'll be crippled if Sony bleeds too much market share, since they released one franchise on Sony's systems and generated revenue with that one while XBox received over a dozen titles and generated revenue equal to Sony.
What they neglect are the major RPG publishers -- sure, they're not the biggest publishers around, but if Sony starts to keel over, what's going to happen to Atlus? Will all those titles they make 4 copies of disappear? Will they move onto the DS exclusively? What about the lovable Nippon-Ichi? Who knows. Without Sony, RPGs seem to be handheld-only. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Do you have any thoughts on what'll happen to certain publishers if Sony starts to fall away (they won't... hypothetically speaking)?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Geoff Gibson @ Apr 16th 2007 5:41PM
RPGs rely on the Playstation.
I have said it time and again the MAIN reason to get a PS is for their unbelievably good RPG games.
That being said the Wii and 360 should each have some pretty good ones coming out sometime in the near future.
360: Blue Dragon, Lost Oddysey
Wii: Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles
Heres hoping for an overall growth of the RPG industry with the next gen.
massive_98 @ Apr 16th 2007 6:55PM
I hate RPG's. I love my PS3.
coyurtney @ Apr 16th 2007 8:02PM
RPG's in the US can easily move to DS, Wii and the 360. I see the problem being in Japan. If the PS3 doesn't do good and since Japan doesn't buy 360's then where do the High Def. RPG's go?
scott @ Apr 17th 2007 9:10AM
"If the PS3 doesn't do good "
It's not
And while the 360 is doing poorly in Japan, the PS3 is doing equally bad. I believe last weeks sales put PS3 at ~14000 units sold, and 360 at like 4000. Pretty abysmal for a fairly new console.