The PlayStation 3 "probably" won't be last in console race
by Nick Doerr 
{ Jun 30th 2007 at 2:15PM }
DFC Intelligence issued a report last year stating that the PS3 would probably get pounded by the press and competition because they had such a powerful grip on the console industry. It's a year later and guess what? They are getting pounded by the press and the competition is making it really difficult for Sony to keep its crown. In light of this, DFC Intelligence isn't doing their "I told you so" dance, but they've answered their own question. They don't think Sony will go from first to worst. They say "probably not."Their reasoning isn't necessarily based on what Sony has done, but what Nintendo, Microsoft, and third party developers have done. You can read their report on those companies in the Gamasutra article if you'd like but we'd hate to seem like we're fanning flames that have, for all intents and purposes, seemed to have cooled off a bit. What do they say will save Sony from failing in their "slow and steady" policy? A price cut and a plethora of software. Guess what? E3 is soon and we think something big will happen.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Edwin @ Jun 30th 2007 2:35PM
I believe that by 2009 the PS3 well be on top, the problem that Xbox 360 has is that there console is a piece of crap in terms of quality, many people have had problesm with the ring of death and overall the 360 has to much og a high failure rate, also the 360 decided to go with dvd-9 making there games limited.
The PS3 is future proof and is much more powerful. Making it the best console on the market.
Kspraydad @ Jun 30th 2007 2:44PM
I have complete faith that the PS3 will sell to at least 50% of previous PS2 owners thus 60 million or more in sales..
Xbox will get 120% of Xbox 1 sales...thus 30 million
Wii will need to reinvent itself faster than either of those and will not hit 50 million before needing a new console.
CarNage @ Jun 30th 2007 2:55PM
well said Kspraydad,
Sony doesnt have a chance in hell of losing this console war. everyone always says a new playstation system sucks within its first year. then stellar games come out and everyone feels like stupid fucks. what are the xbot fanboys gonna be playing in 2009??? oh thats right... NOTHING. halo 3 is pretty much the last game coming out for that horrible system.
and suck my dick too nintendo... releasing that fake game system at only $250 bucks. its not even fair to have it compete with ps3 because its TOO cheap. thats like saying "here come buy this $10 game system!", and competing with a $600 system... the only way nintendo would be seen as a real competitor is if they had a high end system with sick graphics like the ps3 is. you cant back out, do some different shit and say you are competing cause they arent. if the wii was 500 bucks lets see people run for it then!
but its all good, cause when they release the waggle wall motion sensitive controller for the ps2, they will get a taste of their own damn medicine. "WHY WOULD YOU BUY A Wii WHEN YOU CAN GET 3 PLAYSTATION 2 SYSTEMS WITH THE WAGGLE WALL CONTROLLER!!!!" (ps2+ waggle wall is only gonna be $99)
Who Flang Poo @ Jun 30th 2007 2:57PM
I honestly do not know. All i know is that Wii will be last 360 will have PS3 until maybe 2010. I belive tis because 360 is by far way better online and they always kill PS3 in multiplat games and 360 has more games coming and they all look great i think that sony will slowly climb up over time and make it to the Top. That whole ring of death this isn't as bad as most people there is only a 30% faliure rate and their slwoly dropping due to new heatsinks, and eventually Microsoft will have to fix it because if they ignore it it will be the death of them. Another thing I want to point out is that the PS3 is more "powerfull" that dosesnt really make a big impact on anyone, think about it the only way that would change something if there was something on the PS3 that would make people say "holy shit 360 cant do that" that would be a big impact and if the PS3 is so much powerfull I do not see sony taking advantage of that and using it. So yea they might make it to the top by 2009 or 2010 if they get their act together.
CarNage @ Jun 30th 2007 3:08PM
who flang,
your mad stupid... ps3 has TONS of games coming out and PLAYSTATION HOME. all 360 has is halo 3... as great as you think it is, its only ONE game.
lenny0487 @ Jun 30th 2007 3:12PM
we all now that by E3, Leizpig show and TGS, people will see what the PS3 is capable of, the system isnt rushed, just the software, but that has been changing for months since launch day, by the end of the year, +8 million will be sold due to the first party games the PS3 has to offer, which opens the way for 3rd party developers to start making games for the system. the 360 is highly dependent on 3rd party, we know the games that the 360 has, not to mention the wii with its first party titles. The PS brand is also a proven Brand, everyone knows what it is.
mat parker @ Jun 30th 2007 3:15PM
whats after Halo 3? Halo Wars and an episodic Halo game
lenny0487 @ Jun 30th 2007 9:17PM
@8
Halo Wars and thats an RTS not an FPS, thats not going to sell like the Halo Trilogy
insane257 @ Jun 30th 2007 3:26PM
CarNage, you took the words right out of my mouth.
Kspraydad and Edwin, you are my friends as of now!
Let me take a quick second to elaborate on this matter. This console was is FIERCE. Really, really fierce. More fierce than any console war before it, because Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft taken huge risks in their consoles. Sony with Blu-Ray, Nintendo with their Wiimote and Microsoft with the HD.
So far, Blu-Ray is said to be taking the lead, and to be taking the lead so early is a good thing. Places like Blockbuster are only selling Blu-Ray and Blockbuster are one of the biggest retailers in their field, so if they are only selling Blu-Ray, expect other companies to follow.
Nintendo, Nintendo, Nintendo... Where did it all come from? From having a fairly unsucessful N64, which was destroyed in terms of sales by the superior PS1, despite having a couple of good titles e.g Goldeneye, Mario 64, Mario Kart 64 and Zelda, those couldn't even save the day, so the Gamecube came out and arguably did even worse. The sales were in the shadow of the PS2, which by now was becomming a house-hold name. The PS2 sold more than the Xbox, which RELIED on Halo and other games that you either love or hate whilst Nintendo was focusing on changing the console war for the next generation by using a whole new controlling system.
So far, The Nintendo Wii has had FANTASTIC sales, and don't get me wrong, i'm not a 'hater', but i fail to see why. The Nintendo Gamecube was made for £10 (apparantly this was found out from a source close to Nintendo) and they were making 90% profit on each one sold. So this makes me wonder how much the Nintendo Wii is being made for, because i've played it alot and i can honestly say it feels extremely cheap and nasty. The graphics are truly awful and seem even worse when you compare them to the PS3 and Xbox 360.
The 360 has ring of death problems. As much as 30% of all Xbox 360's have been back for repairs according to reports. Well done Microsoft, first, you released Vista which was uncomplete and a horrendous OS, then you released 360's which self destructed within a short space of time.
The PS3.. Oh the PS3. More expensive console, but with the promise of new, exclusive games, Final Fantasy XIII on the way to keep RPG fans happy, what more can you ask for? Sony has a trick-shot up it's sleeve, which i believe is none other than Final Fantasy VII. I strongly believe that if needed, Sony will call upon Square-Enix for a re-make of FFVII, which in my opinion, would triple PS3 sales. Sony aren't even using this trick shot right now and they're selling faster than the 360 and Wii down under in Austrailia!
PS3 is definately the best console and this is why i strongly believe it'll come first in the console war.
P.S
Please can the owner of this site put a PS3 Fanboy FORUM so we can discuss things easier? Thanks alot!
CarNage @ Jun 30th 2007 3:51PM
insane257 OWNS!!!!!!!
whats your PSN name? we should jump online and play some games because im sick as heck of constantly repeating myself over and over and over and over and over again about why nintendo and microcock have no chance of winning the console war. motorstorm in 5 minutes bro?
Who Flang Poo @ Jun 30th 2007 4:04PM
Yea, carnage 360 has dead rising 2, Bioshock, two worlds, gothanm 4, Gears 2, Banjo kazooie 3, Halo 3, Halo Wars, Bungie is working on another big project, o and yea multiplats, always better on 360 and GTA 4 is going to have 20 more hours of gameplay time then the PS3 version, and the ring of death is slowly being fixed o and 360 has way better online and you can't argue that unless you have never played and compared both online services. Yea PS3 has Lair... Drakes Fortune..and a God of War game coming out in a few years...and HOME...and Final Fantasy yea carnage im mad stupid?
and before everyone gets on my case about being a xbot i just made a post earlier about the PS3 most likely making it to the top by 2009 and then carnage got all pissed about me sayin rite now 360 has more games and thats true can't argue that and this is toward carnagefor callin me stupid before thing about what i said.
Gausser @ Jun 30th 2007 5:03PM
@Carnage
You are deluded if you think there is no chance the PS3 can lose this round of console wars. Saying that Halo 3 is the last big game coming out for the 360 is silly. The 360 already has a large install base, much larger than the PS3. It is more attractive for developers to make games for the 360 and port them to the PS3. Then you get other companies saying they don't want to realease games for the PS3 until it gets a larger install base. Right now, it's very hard to make money on a PS3 game due to high development costs and the low install base.
To say that it isn't fair for Nintendo to release a gaming system for $250 is ridiculous. Is there a handbook with a list of rules for releasing consoles? Nintendo was very smart to offer something different from the competition. Pricing the Wii at $250 makes it a much more affordable system and attractive to casual gamers, the same gamers that pushed the PS2 into the stratosphere saleswise. It's selling well right out of the gate and that's why your hearing news like Namco/Bandai, Capcom and Sega are shifting more resources towards Nintendo consoles. After only 8 months the Wii has almost caught up to Xbox 360 worldwide sales. With such a deficit, it is going to be very difficult for the PS3 to make a comeback. It is not impossible, but it's a long, steep hill to climb.
WTangoFoxtrot @ Jun 30th 2007 5:08PM
maybe you guys should read you history books a bit. heres a quick recap :
Xbox one was a failure because -
1. came out a year later than the PS2
2. had superior hardware in all respects and was thus more expensive
3. lacked a decent games cataloge
FF to the present one sees that SOny has made a similar error with the PS3 -
1. came out a year later than the 360
2. has superior processing power and hence much more expensive
3. lacks a decent games cataloge
now for those SOnyBots wo say the PS3 is going to get decent games soon i say dont hold your breath. sure many games have been announced but as sony is so good when it comes to software i would expect recurring delays. also for the idiots who think the 360 is only about Halo have u heard about the RPGs Mass Effect, Bioshock and the Racing sims Dirt, Forza, PGR series ? not to mention Gears of war 2 in say around 2 years and the combat sims Ace combat 6 and Square Enix's Project SLyphspeed. and we know of all this before E3 even, i cant wait to hear what more they have in store.
its just history repeating itself. i sided the xbox in the last gen because of its hardware superiority but was dissapointed in the end. same way i sided the PS3 this gen but given the way sony handled the this 1st year i dont see the PS3 anywhere close to the top this time. M$ has already started fixing the heating issues in their 360s and this fall will release cooler 360s with teh 65nm technology, what will u guys have to complain against xbox then eh ?
ohh and for all the Canucks here, happy Canada day for tomorrow mates.
Ninegauger @ Jun 30th 2007 5:27PM
If I had to pick a console most likely to lose it would be the PS3 at this point. The Wii just keeps selling, against everyone's better judgement. The 360 has a year head start and great games. The PS3 has HD movies and supposedly superior hardware which is hard to show when the PS3 version of games look the same or worse than the 360.
The latest Madden game will apparently only run at 30 FPS on the PS3 whereas the 360 version runs at 60 and regardless of how you feel about Madden it sells a ton.
Sony got away with a lot of crap with the PS2 because it was first out the gate and now we'll see what happens when they're a year late to the party.
Oh... and 30% of Xbox 360s may fail but as many as 100% of PS3s suffer from a subpar selection of games.
Also, personally, I think HOME looks dumb... it doesn't look like something I want to constantly play with, but I've got to give Sony credit for at least trying to innovate for once.
jason @ Jun 30th 2007 5:40PM
PS3 AIN'T GOT NOTHING ON 360 GAMES
http://www.videogamesblogger.com/2007/04/06/console-exclusive-games-list-for-xbox-360-ps3-and-wii.htm
Wii60 4life
Also 360's Madden 2008 will run at 60 fps and PS3's Madden will run at 30 fps and 360 gets quite a bit of multi-platform games before the PS3 can get them like Dirt and Rainbow 6 Vegas. One other thing Xbox live kicks ass and gets way more downloadable games, trailer, demos, movies, TV shows, gamer pictures, and we get get coverage of e3 and other gaming events.
insane257 @ Jun 30th 2007 6:00PM
Hi, CarNage i've only got Resistance FOM, but my PSN is: insanity21
thanks man!
Time to be serious for a minute:
Who Flang Poo, that's a joke of a post right there. There are no Final Fantasy games
on the sheets according to Square Enix, so how can you say that? There is no
detail of how much extra gameplay is in the GTA packs for the 360 either.
The PS3 will easilly become the best selling console of the 3. Anyone who denies
this is clearly talking out of their arse. What i want to know is this:
where did all the haters come from??? I mean,EVERYONE either liked Nintendo
or Sony, because they had one of their consoles during the N64 vs the PS1
console war. Then the next generation, we got people who turned their backs
on Ninty and Sony and went for Microsoft's Xbox?
So is it fair to say that Xbox fans are all backstabbers? Because somewhere along
the line, most of these Xbox fanboys MUST have had a Nintendo or Sony console first
because the Xbox came out after them... People seem to defend whatever console they
have. What sad people you are. I have a PS3, but if i hated it, i'd certainly tell
you why. I have played a Wii, and it's a cheap system with novelty controls. End of
story. You could put out 20 Zelda re-hashes and it wont convince me to buy a Wii for
myself. And the 360? If you're lucky enough to play it without it breaking on you
(and yes, i've witnessed the horrible customer service it takes about getting the
console back and forth to you when you get the dreaded red light's on it) you'll
find that many of the games are on the PS3, only many of them play better, without
as much loading time. Oblivion, anyone? Rainbow 6?
And what's with people loving Nintendo so much? Let me tell you. Nintendo said
that the Wii was aimed at 'Non gamers' and 'girls'. And let me tell you this. 50%
of the people i've seen with a Wii are 'Non gamers' or 'girls'. So when did it
become cool for 'Non gamers' and 'girls' to hate on the PS3 all of a sudden???
People like myself have been following the console wars since the SNES, Megadrive,
Gameboy Pocket, Gameboy Classic, Sega Saturn etc. etc.
It is a huge shame to see all these haters spawn out of no-where. I'm ashamed of
the gaming community.
Thomas @ Jun 30th 2007 6:16PM
Sony will not be last because they have the better product... next gen has power, has blu ray, and does not over heat 30% of the time. who's going to buy 360 when they know there's a chance you might get a defective one... and then on top of that.. the customer service is shitty. I was stupid and bought a 360, but I'm worried about playing games on it, enjoying them and then the damn system stops working.. I'm going to stick w/ ps3 and leave it at that. Plus... I'm not paying 59.99 for a dvd game... I rather pay 59.99 for a game on blu ray w/ extra features and hopefully in the future, extra game. Look at the Strangle Hold package... that's basically a ps3 exclusive w/ a preview on 360.
T-Mape @ Jun 30th 2007 6:42PM
@insane
you just made me laugh at the stupidity of your comment.
you said
"where did all the haters come from??? I mean,EVERYONE either liked Nintendo
or Sony, because they had one of their consoles during the N64 vs the PS1
console war. Then the next generation, we got people who turned their backs
on Ninty and Sony and went for Microsoft's Xbox?
So is it fair to say that Xbox fans are all backstabbers? Because somewhere along
the line, most of these Xbox fanboys MUST have had a Nintendo or Sony console first
because the Xbox came out after them"
then you go on to say
"People like myself have been following the console wars since the SNES, Megadrive,
Gameboy Pocket, Gameboy Classic, Sega Saturn etc. etc."
my point is that you say that all microsoft fanboys are backstabbers at a company before them
but
let me ask you this you have followed SNES, annd Sega Saturn so then you were a backstabber to one of those because playstation didnt come out until after them
so you have backstabbed nintendo and sega for owning and repping a PS3
now let me rephrase what you said so that it applies to you and make you look stupid
from this "So is it fair to say that Xbox fans are all backstabbers? Because somewhere along
the line, most of these Xbox fanboys MUST have had a Nintendo or Sony console first"
to this "So is it fair to say that Playstation fans are all backstabbers? Because somewhere along the line, most of these Playstation fanboys MUST have had a Nintendo or Sega console first"
Thank you for your time
CarNage @ Aug 14th 2007 2:41PM
YEAH WHO FLANG YOU ARE STUPID.....
i just LOVE it when xbox fanboys whip out a list of games they have coming out!
halo 3 is overrated and it blows
bioshock is COMING TO PS3 DUMMY!
gears 2
mccomber @ Jun 30th 2007 7:53PM
You know why Sony will do well no matter what? It's the brand. Simply put, Playstation is now synonymous with gaming. The average person knows Nintendo because it's been around forever, and Playstation because it's the biggest. The fact that the ps2 has outsold the 360 since the 360 was introduced should tell you how strong the brand is.
Come this holiday season, the whole "no library" argument will be tired and just plain wrong, as both consoles will have a stellar library of games. If you think the ps3 has no big exclusives then you just have your head in the sand, plain and simple. It will be interesting to see how the sales stack up for all three systems when Christmas has come and gone.
As for the lead the 360 has, it would matter more if it was by a lot more consoles, or we were further into this product cycle. It may seem like a fair amount now, but we are talking about products that will hopefully sell at least 5-6 times what the 360 has sold at this point. It still has a long way to go before it's "dominating" the market. When it's a margin like the ps2 had on the 360/gamecube, then we'll talk.
You know, a big strike against the 360 right now is the hardware itself. It may seem like beating a dead horse, but it's a problem that continues, and doesn't seem to be slowing down.
When I'm standing at Best Buy looking at the box for a Pro system, and I get unsolicited advice from a kid working there to "wait until it's more reliable" I think it's a problem for the console. It's quickly becoming a mainstream issue, and MS doesn't seem to be doing anything about it. Your average consumer will be more concerned with whether the console will work for the next year than what framerate Madden is running at. Along with the fact that even the Elite doesn't have wifi, the reliability problems are what is stopping me from picking one up now.
Kspraydad was right on the money, second comment in. The Xbox brand would have to grow by leaps and bounds to reach the same audience that the Playstation has.
Azorean @ Jun 30th 2007 8:59PM
Man you Sony fans a seriously drinking from the Sony Kool-aid! Sony doesn't have a good track record on delivering on promises so keep on hoping that they come through for once anyways it's the thought that counts right?
ryano @ Jun 30th 2007 9:01PM
i agree with you 20.poster so hard.
the problem with the PS3 is it's unfriendly coding. i've a friend who's working on a next gen game title for the 360 and KONAMI wants them to port it to the PS3, but it's a damn LABYRINTH! they can't figure the thing out!
and it's because of this problem that games keep getting delayed. developers are learning, but in the meantime 360 games are being created, shipped, bought and being played (provided a 360 that won't break.)
so, therefore, making games (exclusive and multiplayer) are more attractive on the 360. THIS is why it will be kinda tempting to stick with it, regardless of how many "Swords of Truth" the PS3 is hiding.
i sooo want:
a) a PS3 that has easier hardware so games can be created with ease and realeased quickly.
b) a 360 with a .65 nm chip (google that bad boy)
c) a wii that has more to offer (this should change in year or so)
in the meantime i'll be happy playing my PS2 and Nintendo DS library. PS2DS ftw!!! (doesn't sound as good as 'Wii60' lol)
maxchalk @ Jun 30th 2007 9:19PM
A lot of people talk about Wii running out of steam, and yet, the 3 big games (Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime, Smash Bros) aren't even out yet. They aren't even close to being out yet.
And what of Nintendo's other stable of first party mega sellers? F-Zero? Starfox? Animal Crossing? Pikmin? Zelda? Mario Kart?
My prediction is Nintendo takes the crown this time, and is largely unchallenged. PS3 is second after A LONG TIME in third place. 360 is a close third.
I can only see PS3 limping across the finish line with more sales than Wii once 360 and Wii's successors are out and PS3 becomes irrelevant. By then, even with more sales, its the de facto loser.
Mook @ Jun 30th 2007 9:21PM
Most of you are silly geese, and appear to be ignoring the plain, objective facts surrounding this console generation.
The Wii has already won this generation, and the PS3 has already finished last. The Wii will only surge farther and farther ahead in its dominance. Sorry guys, but the casual gamer dictates who wins each and every generation - MS and Sony both blew it this time around, although MS could have done much better if their console was more reliable.
HazMat117 @ Jun 30th 2007 10:34PM
I don't see how you guys can call yourself gamers when all ya do is knock on the games. I have been playing games since 1984. Run the systems names from Atari 2600 to PS3 and I have owned it or at least played the best games on them. I have gamed on C64s all the way to Vista and still have to say that it is the games that make the memories. I don't care who wins the so called war as long as they keep making killer games. I will say that Nintindo has done much better with this console compared to the last one. I never bought a Gamecube cause of the danged controler. They should have just kept the N64s controler insted of that peice of junk. Sony has RPGs, MS has FPS and online play like no other, PC has variety and some killer RTS that consoles just suck at, and Nintindo is doing something new and in its own way cool. Plus they have something that MS and Sony don't really have, the storied nostalgic franchises. So I say the winner is,,, Gametap.
Xiru @ Jun 30th 2007 11:26PM
I've been absent lately on these topics due to being the warhawk beta. It has reminded me just how great PS3 exclusives are going to be. I've played both Halo 3 and Warhawk now and I can honestly say that Warhawk is more in depth, fun and an all around better game. Graphics, sound, gameplay, you name it. I really don't see how MS can hang on now with these killer exclusives coming. I can promise you that Warhawk is amazing and has reinstated my faith in Sony and the PS3. I also can't believe how well the Wii is doing. I sold mine because I can't stand it. It just feels so last generation that I can't bear it. I believe the only threat to the PS3 is the 360 but even then, its hardly a threat unless MS buys out Square Enix and Konami. The whole GTA4 thing has been blown out of proportion for now. Lets wait and see what the "exclusive" content actually is before we go crazy. I will be buying the PS3 edition either way. I think the failure rate is a bit higher than 30%, I saw somewhere 66%(my personal experience is 80%, 4 friends have died and mine is still going so 4/5) and last time MS was questioned on it they said something about "its not how many have failed, its how we are handling it." Well they haven't handled anything. The 360 should be fixed by now. Once mine dies, I will not be buying another one or having it fixed. I can only say this to those who believe the PS3 is garbage or not worth the investment. Just wait until Warhawk, Lair, Uncharted, FF13, MGS4 are all out, then tell me its a horrible system, I would bet that most of you will switch to the PS3 by then.
joey2joey @ Jul 1st 2007 7:27PM
The problem with most 360 games is they can also be played on the computer if it has good enough hardware. MS uses technology already available and so does the Wii (some of it is really old like the touch screne is been here for 20 yers and the DS is the best cause of 20 year old tech? I have a PDA with a touch screne.) Sony decided to make a totaly new technology and have it so you do not have to wait months after its release to get one? A wii is fun but has very few good games. Nintendo decided to do alot of mediocer ports. Also why would they make it less technolgy and fetures on the PS3 when the PS3 can do much more then the 360. Also PS3 is fowlowing the same trend as the PS1 and PS2. THe xbox 1 is not a faliure also. Sony will have better online in half a year for free. Yes you do not have to pay to use a internet conection you are already paying for on the PS3. The Wii has online cababiliy but no online games. I'd give it late 2008.
Jonah Falcon @ Jul 1st 2007 2:11AM
Does it matter where it finishes? So long as the console has the software you want and the support you desire....
mccomber @ Jul 1st 2007 2:14AM
The thing about having a strong brand is of course loyalty. The big deal about the ps2 continuing to outsell the 360 is that those are people not buying into the xbox brand. I agree that right now the Wii is the big dog for sales, but lets face it, it's a whole different product and experience from what the ps3 and 360 are offering, and as of right now appeals to a whole different audience overall.
I have to stand behind the idea that the brand is as important as the product though. Chances are that when the time comes for the well over 100 million current ps2 users to upgrade, the first place they are going to look is at the ps3. Neither the 360 nor the ps3 has reached a critical mass, or the tipping point on price to truly get a hold of the market, and that is what gives the Playstation an advantage over the Xbox. Ask the average person who owns a ps2 which system they would rather have, and I bet the answer will be ps3. The Ps2 had many of the same complaints leveled against it as the ps3 does. It was not launched at what was considered a "reasonable" price at the time, in fact it was pretty damn expensive compared to what the market had previously seen in successful consoles. It had a poor library at first, was hard to develop for... I hate to use the history repeating argument, but there are numerous parallels.
The main thing I see right now is that the market is still wide open, and there are way too many variables right now in future games and pricing to even begin to call a winner. Most of all, Sony isn't going to roll over and let MS take the lead from them.
Honestly, in the end I could care less if the 360 ends up selling more, because I know I'm going to buy one, because there are great games coming out for it. But I honestly will be surprised if it wins this generation. Best case I see for MS this generation is to end up tied with Sony.
In the end, those of us who can own both consoles are going to be the winners.
samfish @ Jul 1st 2007 3:44AM
Mccomber is absolutely correct. If Sony is going to gain steam from anywhere at this point, it'll be in large part due to brand name recognition/loyalty. That's a huge well to draw from, but I think that by the time the price of the PS3 gets low enough to start doing that, it'll kind of be too late to really take command.
Although I've always maintained that the system that ends up on top will be the one that gets the exclusive game that just explodes onto the public the way DKC did for the SNES, FF VII for the PS1 and GTA3 for the PS2.
Anticrawl @ Jul 1st 2007 4:32AM
Hey now I love my ps3, but come on. To say the 360 has nothing passed Halo 3 for the rest of the year is just insane. Here is less than HALF of the list from now up until Christmas for the 360. I have all three consoles and honestly I get more use out of my 360 at the moment, and I play the Wii for Super Paper Mario occasionally. Motorstorm is good for some arcady racing when I'm to tired to play anything seriously.
Shadowrun
Forza Motorsport 2
Call of Juarez
DiRT
The Darkness
The BIGS
Overlord
Vampire Rain
Project Sylpheed
Two Worlds
MotoGP 07
Stranglehold
Too Human
Bioshock
Medal of Honor: Airborne
Blue Dragon
Stuntman Ignition
Blazing Angles 2
Dynasty Warriors: Gundam
Battlefield: Bad Company
Possession
2 Days to Vegas
Huxley
Dogtag
The Outsider
Haze
Golden Axe
Project Gothem Racing 4
Kengo
Blacksite: Area 51
Quake Wars
Skate
Fata Inertia
Turok
Eternal Sonata
Warriors Orochi
Juiced 2
World in Conflict
Halo 3
Sega Rally Revo
America's Army
Elveon
Age of Pirates
Magna Carta 2
Kingdom Under Fire
The Precursors
Warlords
Bomberman Live
Marvel Universe Online
Lost Odyssey
Virtua Fighter 5
The Club
Flatout: UC
Crash of the Titans
Half-Life 2: The Orange Box
Tony Hawk's Proving Grounds
Grand Theft Auto IV
Mercenaries 2
Ace Combat 6
Conan
Beautiful Katamari
Warhammer
Guitar Hero III
TimeShift
Call of Duty 4
Naruto: Rise of a Ninja
Spider-Man: Friend or Foe
Unreal Tournament 3
Assassin's Creed
The Chronicles of Riddick
Splinter Cell Conviction
Brothers in Arms Hell's Highway
Army of Two
Kane & Lynch: Dead Men
Left 4 Dead
Soldier of Fortune: Pay Back
Rock Band
The Siege of Khe Sanh
The Golden Compass
Cipher Complex
Dungeon Explorer
Project IM
F.E.A.R. 2
Data-Fly
Demons of Mercy
Halo Wars
Banjo-Kazooie
Project Offset
Turning Point: Fall of Liberty
Mass Effect
Sproutey @ Jul 1st 2007 7:32AM
My take is that the 360 will take it by a nose but there won't be a clear winner this generation like the previous two. A few points I feel true;
a. Yes, the PS3 will get a price cut but so will the 360 and a heavier one given its interior redesign due soon. Only the increased availability of the blue laser has lowered Sonys costs significantly.
b. The Wii will run out of steam big-time. Like many here believe, its running on hype not content and its going to look poorer and poorer. Like the Gamecube, it'll trundle along on sporadic first-party releases and will suffer from a very low game attachment rate. Third-party publishers will shy away outside of Japan. Inside Japan they're pulling titles away from the PS3 and not harming the 360 at all.
c. Sony have real problems. The PS3 is drawing criticisms in all its markets and underperforming everywhere but they can't afford a big price cut due to the corporations current finances and any price cutting will need to be justified by reduced component costs. Unfortunately, MS may not have the flashy bits inside but they're devestatingly effective, well balanced and cheap to manufacture. Kutaragi got it plain wrong and is prime proof that an engineer shouldn't be left in total control of a consumer product.
d. Is the PS3 really capable of bettering the 360's games performance anyway? Its common knowledge the 360's graphics chip is superior and as any PC gamer knows, thats far more important than a few extra bhp on the cpu. Sony have positioned the PS3 as a gaming powerhouse but where's the evidence?
For what its worth (not much I know), I believe the Wii will still come last and the PS3 will pick up when its price drops heavily, but the 360 will deservedly come home. As much as many hate Microsoft, they've specced a great machine, tailored to the market, cost-effective, provided excellent developer support and nurtured an enthusiastic fan-base. Basically, its a complete package.
insane257 @ Jul 1st 2007 8:06AM
T-Mape...... before you start talking bad about my post, you do realize that Sega had gone bust by this time and the competition was between Sony and Nintendo???...
Do your research
Galley @ Jul 1st 2007 8:49AM
Wii sales will nosedive in 2008; crummy graphics and a non-standard controller will only go so far.
The Xbox 360 sales will become stagnant in 2008 due to its lack of a built-in Hi-Def movie player. HD DVD will be dead by then.
The PS3 sales in 2008 will be ginormous due to the explosion of the Blu-ray format and tons of killer games.
insane257 @ Jul 1st 2007 8:58AM
Galley, well said.
What annoys me is the fact that alot of Nintendo fanboys say that the Wii is the best because it sells the most. Their console is the weakest out of the 3!!! and yet again, RELIES on Mario and Zelda to save the day. The poor sales of Mario and Zelda Twilight Princess reflect that the gaming community is growing tired of contant rehashes of Zelda where you rescue the princess in every damn game. The Nintendo Wii sells the most because of it's price. if the PS3 was £180 it'd sell more than any console to date! Think about when the kids parents walk into a shop and see the Wii for £180 and the PS3 for £399. Most times they'll pick the Wii, even though it's not good the best graphics etc.
When these newbies who're buying the Wii, (the non-gamers) become more inteligent, they'll go for the PS3, which is destined to last at least 10 years. It's futureproof. The Nintendo Wii is a gimick that will not last 5 years. And judging by Nintendo's track record of moving onto the next system and forgetting about the last one, making no more games for it, the Nintendo Wii should enjoy its sucess now, because the PS3 is about to burn it.
Oji @ Jul 1st 2007 9:55AM
This entire comments page is filled with mindless pre-teens with blown up heads. Just because you have a set of facts doesn't make you convincing, especially since you probably got them all from THIS website.
Naturally, the future is unpredictable and completely out of our hands, but as they say: experience is the best teacher and here is what experience has taught me:
SOFTWARE MAKES OR BREAKS A SYSTEM. Currently PS3 is, and SONY ADMITS THIS, (Phil Harisson says not to judge a console by its launch) at a severe lack in the software department. They're slowly working their way back up, but M$ has a HUGE lead here. And let's face it, in every generation the most popular system had the most games.
Developers make games for the system because the system sells games... and the system sells because the developers make games. Simple formula, no math involved.
Second, HARDWARE DOES NOT DETERMINE A CONSOLE's SUCCESS. Xbox, Genesis, PSP, Saturn, and N64 have proven this! Please don't tote a system's processing power as its primary selling point, it just doesn't sell systems
Lastly, THE SOFTWARE MEDIUM IS CRUCIAL. Look at PS1 vs N64, PS2 vs Dreamcast vs Gamecube, PSP vs NDS. All of these systems were (arguably) made or broken by their choice of software medium. CD vs cartridge, DVD vs GD vs miniDVD, UMD vs cartridge.
When you take those three points into account, the winner may very well be M$.
Here's my two (more) cents. Sony will eventually take pole position. Why? Wii is seriously losing steam (from the developers side), it has been a very long time since a Wii game has come out that couldn't be called, at best, a mini-game. Metroid Prime may change this though, judging from its upcoming games list, i don't see it happening anytime soon. Not to mention that there are only so many ways a gamer can wave a stick before it's all been done before. Throw in the fact that it's graphically weak, poopy internet, has cruddy processing power, and its market is "casual gamers" (who, mind you, are the kind of gamers that RARELY BUY GAMES) and I predict that one or two years down the line Nintendo will have to replace Wii.
X360 will have the crown for another year, only because it's still being pushed along by a very supportive developing community. Still, there are two things they have to worry about: the Japanese market and the quality of their hardware. A 30% failure rate is a staggering amount, and it's not a number that you want floating around and attracting attention. Don't forget that M$ won't even show us that ACTUAL numbers here and we've got a scandal that could very well destroy the X360's future. However, M$ seem to be on the ball about this and hopefully hardware changes will be making their way to stores sooner rather than later. The second vital point is the Japanese market. Sales there are stagnant because of a general lack of interest in the software that is available on the system. The japanese market plays puzzle, RPG, and strategy and M$ haven't really tried to attract this particular brand of consumer. Too bad, since some of the biggest names in video game development are in Japan and they're just not attracting their attention there.
PS3 has two things going for it: brand name loyalty (just look at the fanboys here!) and a medium winner (Blueray pretty much takes the gold here boys). Still, they've got the software drought to worry about (and they're definitely working on it) and the
fact that they've got huge promises to live up to (though lying to the public has never hurt them in the past!). Don't forget their much-toted CELL PROCESSOR has yet to prove its worth.
We can make more educated speculation after E3, of course.
Oji @ Jul 1st 2007 10:49AM
Of course you can compare them, Microsoft has had a year long head start and their attempts at enticing Japanese developers haven't borne any fruit. Considering the software they've got lined up for this holiday, I don't see that changing.
Oji @ Jul 1st 2007 10:51AM
Also, these websites need forums.
insane257 @ Jul 1st 2007 11:02AM
check this link:
http://news.punchjump.com/article.php?id=4406
The PS3 was selling rather poorly in Japan, but again, this is due to the PRICE. When the price comes down, the PS3 will ROCKET TO 1ST PLACE. I'm the only one out of my friends to have a PS3. I'd say 20 out of 30 people i know want a PS3 but can't afford it just yet, but they've all said when the price drops, they'll buy one. So by my reckoning, when the price drops to an amount that everyone can afford, just like the PS2 did, the PS3 will take over.
I'm sick of all the PS3 haters. It really is like they're newbies to gaming. Sony know exactly what they're doing (even if they look like they don't). And while the PS3 has some good games now, e.g Resistance Fall Of Man, Motorstorm, Oblivion, Rainbow 6.........Sony are saving the best games for when the PS3 has a bigger audience. No point releasing the best PS3 games now because it's not selling to it's potential audience. When it does, expect it to sell.
You could say the same for the 360 and Wii, what if they have a price drop? Well, sure, they'll sell, the HD format is fit for the bin already and the Nintendo Wii's graphics are just plain ugly, it's not a next-gen console. I paid more for a PS3 than i would have for a Wii or 360, but i'm glad i did, because i have the best of both worlds: great graphics and a well built system, unlike the Wii's poor graphics and the Xbox's disgraceful build.
mccomber @ Jul 1st 2007 11:11AM
"Although I've always maintained that the system that ends up on top will be the one that gets the exclusive game that just explodes onto the public the way DKC did for the SNES, FF VII for the PS1 and GTA3 for the PS2."
Exactly. It's all about the games that capture the public's imagination AND are great games. Right now there are great games planned for all three systems, but is there anything coming up that the majority are going to look at and say "wow, I want to play that"? Well, maybe on the Wii... but I wouldn't call Wii Sports a truly amazing experience. All the people at work who were talking about the Wii a few months ago are back to talking about pretty much whatever is the flavor of the week. Right now I believe that's the iPhone.
Sorry, but it still just feels like a novelty to me. When Mario comes out we'll see if he's doing anything new. NiGHTS is the only title that really has me interested, but we'll see where that one goes. Once you get past the motion controls, it's all minigames and last-gen.
And for those who want to play the xbox=ps3 game, do a search for 360 and dreamcast, 1up did a good take on it... talk about similarities. Though, having said that do I think that the 360 will go the way of the dreamcat? Hell no. Just like I doubt the ps3 will end up like the xbox did last generation.
Neck and neck, with the ps3 pulling into the lead.
And the Wii off somewhere spinning and twirling, doing it's little thing.
ryano @ Jul 1st 2007 11:49AM
i've been saying it for months on here and a few posts back but everyone keeps ignoring me: developers don't like developing for the PS3. it's unintuitive, and makes porting games very difficult.
now, as a PS2 lover this disturbs me. i come here every so often to see if developers are liking the PS3 and they say it has TONS of potential, but the games never come out on time. they are always pushed back.
also i've been saying that the developer for Silent Hill 5 who is The Collective is working on the 360 version only at the moment. this is coming from a close friend who works for them.
they WILL NOT work on the PS3 version because this would slow down production!! they need to show progress to KONAMI and the 360 is just a more efficient machine to pumping games out.
all the games this fall were said to be launch games. SONY says the PS3 is futureproof. why not wait for that future to happen? blu-ray movies? pfft...fanboy, please.
insane257 @ Jul 1st 2007 1:41PM
Ryano, good post but i think games developers will find ways of working with the PS3's format and it'll become easier to do in the future. It's definately futureproof because Blu-Ray is just becomming more popular, e.g Blockbuster only selling Blu-Ray instead of HD.
This years console war is like the tortoise and the hare. The PS3 being the tortoise. Don't worry though, the PS3 will show it's true potential in time.
h0mi @ Jul 1st 2007 2:00PM
Regarding the console race, are we looking at just the US or worldwide? Poor 360 sales in Japan (vs relatively strong ps3 sales) would push the ps3 ahead of the 360 worldwide but looking at the sales figures at the US, the ps3 will never overtake (let alone do it on a consistent enough basis to outsell it totally) with a $200 price difference.
ryano @ Jul 1st 2007 6:21PM
well i realize that developers will get better with time. that is exactly what happened with the PS2. as far as the here and now is concerned i think the PS3 needs to pick up the pace and prove themselves at E3. past showings have been less than steller filled with empty promises.
regarding HD vs. Blu-ray, yeah i'd like to see blu-ray improve a game's content. i don't know how other than compact an otherwise 2-disc game. i also really like how scratch proof a blu-ray disc is.
but the HD Drive won't hurt MS since it's only an add-on. they can discontinue whenever they want. and blu-ray and HD movies in general need a HDTV to take advantage of them in the first place (i'm saving as we type lol).
PS2 games prove that DVD is still a reliable format for games, which is why the 360 still uses it. i just hope developers find that "magic PS3 key" real soon...
Andir3.0 @ Jul 1st 2007 9:39PM
@ryano: As a developer that has programmed on the Cell, I can tell you it's not that hard. The thought process is different, that's it. If these developers you know would sit down and read the IBM docs on programming it, they might actually figure it out. Unfortunately, as a game dev, I see too many people come through school thinking that all the tools are ready for them to develop with. This early in the console life, that's not the case. This is why I have a problem with all these new gaming schools popping up. They all accept money from Microsoft and push the 360 as superior. On top of that, they fail to teach these kids how to program on anything outside the box (actually, they fail to teach them how to program at all, most of it's copy and paste coding: "My teacher said this is the way to do it!") It's sad really.
ryano @ Jul 1st 2007 10:12PM
agreed wholeheartedly, Andir3.0.
this is The Collective we are talking about here, not exactly known for any heavy hitters (their 1st next gen game "Dirty Harry" got canned after two years). so i can see their reluctance as well as many developers in using the PS3 and to take "the known" approach to making a game.
you seem very knowledgeable about the Cell and it's workings. i would be very grateful if you can set my mind at ease as to why porting titles from 360 to PS3 often results in lower graphical fidelity?
thank you.
Andir3.0 @ Jul 2nd 2007 7:46AM
@ryano: I would assume (since I don't know what each studio is doing on their end) it has to do mainly with the graphics card mindset. In today's PCs and the 360, the graphics card handles a lot of the culling and visibility checks. (Graphics cards are good at this kind of thing, as is each individual SPU on the Cell.) In the Cell environment, you are given what is essentially a pre-shader video card in the SPU, except it's running at 3.2GHz. Take what video cards could do (as far as effects) back in the nVidia 5000-ish era and imagine if they had a 3.2GHz clock. Now, your not going to dedicate the entire 6 SPUs to video background processing, but you can borrow some of that processing power to do collision, culling, physics, transformation (camera and object movement), etc and feed the RSX only what it needs. You can now use the RSX to process the pre-calculated scene and add after effects (motion blur, AA and the like.) This is also why the split memory can be a good thing. The Cell memory runs at full clock speed. You can virtually apply transformations (object movement, rotation, deformation) in system memory and pass those objects to the RSX for texturing and processing in it's memory buffer.
Why you get these bad ports (IMHO) is due to this mindset. When a developer passes objects to the graphics buffer and performs the transformations using the graphics library instead of the Cell architecture, they are trying to cram what the 360's graphics card can do into the RSX (which is a bit less powerful to be honest [but not by a whole lot]) This is why you get games that look almost as good as the 360 on ports. The port still relies on the video card for most of it's processing leaving the Cell mostly idle.
It's my opinion that a lot of developers are not willing to change the code enough to handle this change. There's also that fact that most of the big name studios want a product right now(!) and getting the game "good enough" is the norm so these kinds of engine changes are usually passed over, giving games that less than polished look.
Why they state the PS3->360 ports would look as good on the 360 is along the line that the dev will have to change these Cell specific functions to run on the 360 GPU instead of the CPU. But the caveat is that not all these functions need to be run GPU side so they can use the tri-core CPU in the 360 for some of the less demanding tasks. Besides, the 360 CPU isn't designed for vector processing, so it would be just as bad to leave these on the CPU if you were going form the PS3 to 360.
It's also worth noting that the PS3 can handle 2 shared thread and 6 unique "unshared" threads at the same time while the 360 is limited to 6 shared threads. Shared threads are kind of like the hyper-threading in Intel processors today. They can perform two operations at roughly the same time, but it splits the workload of the processor between these two threads. When one thread is idle waiting for memory allocation or a return from system IO, the processor will shift it's attention to the secondary thread without programmer intervention. This makes it "feel" like you have 2 cores instead of one. However, you're splitting the processor into two different tasks which is bad for the stuff I talked about earlier (the culling, transformation, etc.) because this requires heavy processor time. Hyperthreading is good when your dealing with things like general desktop systems where the processor can shift between operations while it waits for you to press the next button on your keyboard or it has to wait for the next packet of data from your network.
Does any of that make sense? I tried to make it as non-technical as I could. :p This is why I said the Cell requires a different mindset. "How much of this scene can I have the Cell pre-calculate and how much needs to be done on the RSX?" Honestly, the Cell is highly under utilized in most of the games out there.
Andir3.0 @ Jul 2nd 2007 8:35AM
Sorry, I skipped one entire thought process...
When developers code a game for the 360, they are coding for a tree core processor and a GPU. It's not too dissimilar from programming on a PC today. When they port these games to the PS3, they follow that same mindset and are forced to use the SPU totally as a secondary general processor. This is why some people say that the Cell would not be good for general tasks. They are really tasking the CPU incorrectly treating the SPU as just another core. While it will perform well, the SPU actually has to perform more instructions to perform the same as a full blown core. This isn't entirely bad as long as you don't rely on it.
As far as texture quality difference. My thought on this can be many differnet things, but I think many of the ports are trying to utilize the system memory as texture cache forcing the RSX to read from system memory at half the speed of it's own.
If they performed some of the transformations before sending the objects to the RSX memory, they can literally cut the objects in half since your not seeing the back side of an object, thus needing half the normal storage.
Anyway, those are just a few thoughts on why porting looks so bad, but it could also be from many other reasons. As I said, it just takes a different mindset. As a programmer you have to accept that your job will change. As a game developer, your going to have to learn something new every new cycle of consoles and even sometimes every year. Your skills will have to change. This is part of the reason why I dislike Microsoft as a whole. Programming for Windows has not changed and this is why Windows will very slowly trumble along and not change drastically. Microsoft loves this though. They don't have to adapt and they get complacent programmers that know only how to program on x86 and windows platforms. This creates stubborn programmers that know one way and only one way. Anything outside that way is ridiculous to them. This happened at the dawn of PC computing with the mainframe programmers. They were comfortable with the methodology they had been using all those years and it took a different mindset to work on personal PCs. Some adapted, others didn't. It's the way of things.
ryano @ Jul 2nd 2007 10:41AM
theives, dirty villains they are for not learning new methods and indirectly giving the PS3 a bad rap.
i thank you Andir3.0. for the most part i can understand what you said. it sounds like the PS2 all over again. but the programmers learned that hardware and programmers such as yourself are learning the PS3 technology now.
i thought it was suspicious why the games looked worse and it's because of that "ship the game now" mindset. building a car with missing parts. in a way that is cheating the gamers out of what the game could have looked like had it taken advantage of the PS3.
this is the information that i desperately needed.
i thank you again!
Matt B @ Jul 2nd 2007 10:46AM
Thanks for the read Andir3.0!! It's great to finally hear someone that actually know what he is talking about vs. some troll regurgitating what some other dev said.