Analysts: PS3 will overtake Xbox 360 by 2009

by Chris Powell { Sep 19th 2007 at 11:00AM }

One of our favorite aspects of covering the video game industry are analyst predictions. Oftentimes, they're entirely off base, but every now and then, they get things right. Hopefully, DFC Intelligence's new report will be spot on. The company released several reports predicting the PlayStation 3 will overtake the Xbox 360 in overall console sales due to a massive surge in the gaming industry in 2009.

While the research group doesn't believe the PS3 will move ahead of the Wii in total hardware numbers, it predicts the PS3 will generate more software revenue than Nintendo's console by 2012. "We could have a situation where the Wii sells more hardware units, but by 2012 the PlayStation 3 is generating more software revenue," said David Cole, a DFC analyst.

However, this isn't the first time a research group has predicted Sony's dominance early next decade. With so many analysts coming together saying the same thing, one of them is bound to be right ... right? Let's just hope they're not all looking at the same report!

[Via IGN]

Tags: analyst, predictions, PS3-FTW, research, sales numbers, SalesNumbers

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

TRUTH @ Sep 19th 2007 11:15AM

Here's to Dreaming!!

Byron517 @ Sep 19th 2007 11:36AM

QUE the XBOTS to come troll this thread! *looks at watch* I give them about ehhhhh ten or so minutes until they flood this thread with "Oh that's Bullshit! PS3 Sucks Halo this and that blah blah blah!!" Personally... Xbots.. change out your tampons and relax.. EVERYTHING WILL BE OK!! LMAO

ruibing @ Sep 19th 2007 11:41AM

I swear these 360 fans come to this site more frequently than us! How in the world do they always get the first few posts?

The PS3 will be evenly matched in the holiday seasons after the rest of the 2007 games get released with 360. Then in 2008, the only thing the 360 has to combat MGS4, FFXIII, LittleBigPlanet, and more is Ninja Gaiden 2, which I'm sure the Microsoft advertisement team will hype up again.

coplice @ Sep 19th 2007 11:42AM

look! am an analyst!
sony is selling and will keep selling ps3 and they will sell console for christmas too!

Popfrogs @ Sep 19th 2007 11:42AM

It's inevitable. Over time, devkits will improve, more consoles will be sold, people will tire of the waggle console (and all 3 of its first party games), and we'll see Sony continue its dominance.

Anyone who says otherwise must be 12 years old, because they haven't lived to see Sony do this twice already with PS1 and PS2. Despite strong competition, they just have a better console and are positioned well in the market. MS will _never_ get the critical Japanese developers on their side. Japanese xenophobia FTW.

Matt @ Sep 19th 2007 11:59AM

Not a chance. @ 2 (Byron517), your overly aggressive defensive position is no worse than "XBOTS" coming on here and giving our opinion.

It's funny that every month we see weak sales on the PS3 and strong sales on the Xbox 360. At some point next year the Xbox 360 Premium system will drop to $299, then Xbox 720 will release for holiday 2010. What will Sony do then? It's obvious that we will not see PS4 until maybe 2014 at the earliest. Then what? Face it, MS has won the "Next Generation" and will continue to lead the way being first to market with each subsequent system.

wicko @ Sep 19th 2007 12:12PM

@7, Wow, you're incredibly intelligent. Where did you gain such insight???

Ever heard of market shifts? The PS2 was STILL OUTSELLING the 360 up until recently. Oh, don't worry, I fully admit that Sony made some big mistakes. I still plan on getting a 360 at some point. I don't choose "sides".

MS has definitely improved their console, but its clear that theres no winner in the next gen wars. That kind of thing is decided at the END of the generation, not the beginning.

Theres a reason why the PS3 costs so much. It has had ridiculous amounts of research put into it, and I believe that was a mistake. But it also means, its going to take time for developers to learn its inner workings. Which also means, games will get better and prettier. Sony has been a haven for us jRPG fans, and it will continue this trend.

BTW, you must be Nostradamus, predicting the 720 and PS4 release dates? Wow.

Xavier @ Sep 19th 2007 12:18PM

funny you guys posted this "prediction" but never bothered to post the recent NPD sales data...

x silence x @ Sep 19th 2007 12:23PM

If you don't want "Xbots" coming here then quit writing these stupid "Analysts: PS3 will overtake Xbox 360 by (Enter Date Here)".

Simple as that.

jtspanky @ Sep 19th 2007 12:26PM

@7

I assume you're talking about here and not Japan, right? Since MS is definitely NOT winning the next gen war there. Technically, Nintendo is beating everyone's ass and, technically, Sony sold 100K more units than MS this last quarter in the US if you count the PSP and PS2.

So to clarify your statement for you, the PS3 is losing to Xbox360 in US, for now. And, you know what, you're right. I'm all for calling the PS3 a loser, when it applies, but you really need to qualify your statements as opposed to posting blatant fanboy babble.

RPG @ Sep 19th 2007 12:30PM

@ 7

Being first does not necessarily mean being best. 20-30% hardware failure rate? You're pretty much guaranteeing that new customers will shy away from Microsoft in the future for not only careless construction but poor customer service. Why not fix the problem instead of making your user base send in systems for repair numerous times or making them buy new systems altogether?

Now onto the topic at hand:

I hope they're right. I see no reason why the PS3 will eventually overtake the 360 on console sales. Faulty systems = weary consumers. Once the games come out, why not go for something more reliable? Once the user base grows, you'll have more games for more age groups that play better than the tired twitching that is Wii gameplay.

comtar @ Sep 19th 2007 1:14PM

I would like to simply point out that even Lair is more reliable then a 360. Try to remember that Lair's controls work 80% of the time, and the 360s currently only work 66% of the time. Yet everyone doesn't complain about the 360, and in fact almost 9 million of them have been sold... why is that.

thedude81 @ Sep 19th 2007 1:07PM

the 'xholes' are just cranky cause they had nightmares of the red ring and free online play last night. They just want to get some trash talk in because they know deep down that Sony has the superior hardware. booo friggin hoo!

ruibing @ Sep 19th 2007 1:35PM

@25

Shouldn't you concern yourself more with bidding for that cool Halo 3 costume for the launch party instead of reading up on these "false" PS3 predictions? If the 360 is so great, go use it! When my PSP comes and when I get home to use my PS3, I won't be visting this site for awhile.

Matt @ Sep 19th 2007 1:47PM

@12, MS fully admitted there were problems and have since fixed it, as well as announcing a 3 year warranty to cover every system out there. I say that is fixing the problem and taking care of your customers. Plus, your point no longer holds water because 400,000 Xbox 360 units sold last month. That proves that the recent MS announcements regarding the problem and subsequent warranty extension has had no effect on future customers. If anything, the 3 year extension has given people confidence and set aside any concerns they may have had about defective systems.

@8 (wicko), just wait my friend. Mark my words on those dates. I may be off a year one way or another, but just wait. Based on recent history, what makes you think I'm so off? What does everyone else think regarding the next hardware release dates? I think holiday 2010 is a very realistic date for the next Xbox system. Based on Sony's own statements regarding their 10 year plan with PS3, I think 2013-2014 is very realistic for PS4. And yes, I know that doesn't mean 10 years from the release of PS3. It means they have the same long terms plans with PS3 as they are currently having with PS2.

MYPS3KilledMy360 @ Sep 19th 2007 1:49PM

the 720 to me will sound like a 360 1.5(certanly at that time the 720 wont double the power of the 360 and wont look twice as good as the final years of the 360) why bother if the graphics of the PS3 is going to rise that high, why bother buying the 720 which most likely be over $400 meen while the PS3 would be pushing at maybe $300 dollars or less. Would devs really bother creating games like crysis every single time by that time when that happens and people care to generate games of that kind the PS4 would be out. they should turn the 720 into some kind of high end gaming PC and get out of the console business. IT actually looks like they're trying to, so that's why there moving LIVE and LIVE Arcade to the PC.

hiiro @ Sep 19th 2007 1:53PM

This site IS called fanboy so I don't know why I ask but... Why does this prediction matter? People this generation act as if they had loads of stock in either company. Just play the games people.

I think the 360 will already be on its death bed by 2012 anyways.

TORO @ Sep 19th 2007 1:50PM

PS2 sales beating Xbox 360 is a stupid comparison. Lol are you seriously still playing your PS2? If you are boy are you missing out on some good "next-gen" games. XBLM has relationships with Fox, Disney, WGN, Comedy Central, MTV, etc. Why? Well because of the cosumers that are driving the Xbox 360. Those are the TRUE analyst major corporations that are putting their money name and on the Xbox 360 console.

PS3 fans trust in what is happening right NOW, not on 2-4 year predictions. You're missing out on great titles, great online multiplayer, and a huge gaming community that is only on the Xbox 360. It's like you deprive yourself on what is currently the best system, just because you still hold PS2 to your near hearts as true work of art (which it was), but these are new times. Flame me all you want, I'm just an experienced gamer giving some insight ;)

MYPS3KilledMy360 @ Sep 19th 2007 1:55PM

true year for the PS3 and 09 is just the finisher. this war thing makes everything look older than it really is. the 360 has only been out for almost 2 years and the PS3 has only been out for 1. at this time did we really care about the PS2 and the xbox's age at this time. this war is pointless and its only making me tired. the only game i rememberabout the PS2 first year is NBA street, Tekken Tag, and ???. I only cared about the next year where FF10, KH,and MGS came out.

Zim @ Sep 19th 2007 2:02PM

Is that the only defence that xbots can come up with blah, blah, blah Halo, blah, blah, blah. Why dont you just stick a vibrating controler where dont the sun dont shine for extra feed back if its that good.

Just go and look at Killzone the Halo killer.

jevanzz @ Sep 19th 2007 2:03PM

Doesn't it seem kinda strange that 360 fanboys are reading the PS3 fanboy's site? Seems like they're out to cause trouble...

Stewie @ Sep 19th 2007 2:09PM

Anyone know where the photo came from from? URL?

evil one @ Sep 19th 2007 2:15PM

360 sucks we all know the real winner here pluss halo dosent realy look as good kinda looks like ut2003!

MYPS3KilledMy360 @ Sep 19th 2007 2:14PM

@23 its not that im pretty sure these people have lives. so its safe to assume that they all own a PS3 and just stating there opinion. They are playing there 360s now while lying in wait for the A class games to come out or they can be the ones waiting to here about new games that are coming out on the PS3 just to here its a timed exclusive. i know some people who have been on the 360 site watching eternal sonatas development until it became a timed exclusive.

MYPS3KilledMy360 @ Sep 19th 2007 2:17PM

"hear" sorry i just rant

wicko @ Sep 19th 2007 2:25PM

@TORO. Hmm.. comparing the PS2 against the 360 is a stupid comparison. Yeah, you're right! On what basis? Absolutely none. The whole point flew over your head. A fucking 7 year old console is still outselling a 2 year old console. I actually have a PS3, thanks. I'm just pointing out that ancient hardware is still outselling something that all the fanboys think is fantastic and be all end all of consoles.

@Matt - You honestly believe those dates? Gaming consoles are still a relatively brand new market. Development trends are weak at best, and shouldn't be followed. I'm just saying you can't pull dates out of your ass, you aren't an analyst. Don't you think Sony might learn from this lesson? MS one upped them with a year early release date, and Sony thought they could ride it out due to their huge fanbase. It didn't work, and sony felt the blow. But that doesn't mean that they will follow their old tactics, clearly it didn't work. Please don't pretend to be an analyst. Use common sense, like most people do. well, that might be an exaggeration.

toy_boy @ Sep 20th 2007 12:56AM

I have a 360 and love it i've been looking at ps3's because of blu ray and can't come terms with spending that kind of money when the ps2 i bought was a first generation and after 92 days of ownership it starting damaging my discs with it's faulty laser eye and what did sony say send us your console and 125 dollars flat fee and we'll fix it after only 92 days i remind you atleast MS stands by there products and i don't have to PAY to get them fixed!!!!

yuppy @ Sep 19th 2007 3:21PM

lol not going to happen; the PS3 = Jaguar/3D0......

priced too high. not superior enough to justify it. Halo beats any game they have out/planned. Graw matches SOCOM; Havent seen any killer rpgs yet and that was the only reason i considered a PS3.

this is just plain funny. Wall Street knows exactly dick.

ZombieOrgasm @ Sep 19th 2007 3:25PM

Ohhh yeah! Well ps3 that! and uhhh.. 360 that!

No PS3 is BETTER! UH HUH 360 BETTA!

WHA WHA WHAaaaa?! Oh sorry guys I have to go this thing called "life" called me.

MetalKingSlime @ Sep 19th 2007 4:58PM

this will most likely be true. what with a lot more games coming out next year esp. mgs4 etc. ff13 still will take a lot longer obviously, probably 2009. go ps3!!! and i'm sure kh 3 in the future will be on the ps3 too. of course theres always hope for an ff7 remake :) ps3 is gonna rock, can't wait to get one later!

Who Flang Poo @ Sep 19th 2007 5:05PM

@wico
TOROS right
Oh, and by the way PS2 is no longer out selling the 360.
Hate to burst your bubble.

Jason @ Sep 19th 2007 5:08PM

The guy in the picture for this article is frigging hilarious.

That is probably the best person on the planet to fit the "computer geek" stereotype.

Myke @ Sep 19th 2007 5:35PM

I dont believe in Analysts, but IMO, of course, the PS3 will take over eventually.

First, is because the 360 is not going to get better in terms of power so what you see NOW is what get while the PS3 stills has a while to be tapped.
Second, the 360's install base is ONLY the US. The PS3 has a lot of loyalty in Japan, Europe, and US.
Third, M$ has gambled w/ the hardware defects and etc. If M$ doesnt make any $$$ on the 360, the stock holders will vote to close the Xbox divison.

Anyway, the PS3 will be ahead of the 360 in terms of power and etc. By the end of next year, people will see a difference btwn the systems. Only time will tell............

Andy @ Sep 19th 2007 5:45PM

In the end it doesn't matter to me. I enjoy my PS3 and I hope everyone else enjoys their consoles they own. It doesn't matter which one sells more.

Also just a point to make, Dreamcast failed because of the problems with Saturn. The same could happen to Xbox.

SKI @ Sep 19th 2007 7:21PM

"Anyone who says otherwise must be 12 years old, because they haven't lived to see Sony do this twice already with PS1 and PS2."

You must be 12 or an idiot if you ignore all the wars before Sony joined, or forgot what really happened to make the PS and PS2 dominate their generations.

Popfrogs @ Sep 19th 2007 7:37PM

@38: Spoken like a true 12 year old. Or 15. At any rate, rather than throwing anecdotal evidence at me, prove me wrong with facts.

OTAM @ Sep 19th 2007 7:46PM

My 360 RROD on me for the 4th time since launch. I went out and got a PS3 and sold my 360 when I got the working one back. My PS3 runs tip top and hasnt had one problem.

railven @ Sep 19th 2007 8:33PM

Wow...I'm glad I was to naive to bother with the Sega/Nintendo console wars.

Either way, whatever wins, I'll be playing everything since I just play games.

Sony wins, Yeah!, MS wins, Yeah!, Nintendo wins, Yeah!, Armageddon wins, YEAH!

GlobalSYS @ Sep 20th 2007 11:23AM

Who gives a shit. People will play the games they like no matter what anybody thinks. All three consoles are solid entertainment values and their competition is good for the marketplace. The energy spent on meaningless diatribes and rants could be better spent raising awareness about the homeless, global warming or the dreaded ManBearPig.