Metal Gear Solid 4 needs a million sold on day one
by Andrew Yoon 
{ Nov 29th 2007 at 11:00AM }
Sony says that it's been prepared for the loss of third party exclusives from the get-go, understanding that publishers will want to recoup their costs differently in this generation of hardware. "We understand publishers are needing to recoup their investment," said Peter Dille, senior vice president of marketing for Sony. "From our perspective, as long as the games aren't going exclusive to other platforms, PS3 gamers are not actually losing anything." Their strategy? To have the most first party development -- more than Nintendo and Microsoft combined.
Metal Gear Solid 4 isn't the last of Sony's big exclusives. In the far future, fans can also look forward to Final Fantasy XIII. In addition, Dille noted that "15 PS3 exclusives released between September 2007 and April 2008."
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Sergio Vera @ Nov 29th 2007 5:32PM
Is someone... justifying... the unsaid loss of this exclusive? Damn.
Trev @ Nov 29th 2007 12:59PM
I can see having to sell 1M copies, but not how "on the first day" is required or how it makes a difference in comparison to over the first three days or something.
wonway01 @ Nov 29th 2007 11:16AM
If good advertising is done and there is enough availalble this title has as good of a chance as any to pull it off. IMO
Ryan @ Nov 29th 2007 11:23AM
I agree with wonway01. This is the only game I am remotely interested in getting day 1 and paying full price for.
LAZoftheTamarinds @ Nov 29th 2007 7:26PM
I will also get this day one.
drdre74 @ Nov 29th 2007 11:30AM
Go ahead and put my copy down. I will be buying this game first day. Its hard to sell a million of anything these days. With people renting games more than buying them.
Wonderflex @ Nov 29th 2007 11:59AM
Maybe trends are different in other parts of the world, but where I am from I can't really think of a friend who rents more than purchases. I can't think of a game that I have rented since 1999, and that actually was the origional Metal Gear Solid I think.
Matt Adcock @ Nov 30th 2007 5:28AM
Will be fascinating to see how many pre-orders they can rack up, MG4 has been number one on the Amazon charts in Japan so it looks like some people are already putting down their cash... If any game has the right to champion the PS3 in the next few months, this is surely it!!
Eddie @ Nov 29th 2007 11:29AM
I don't know how you can say it needs to sell x amount on the first day, especially since this may be a holiday release title in 08 and I'd imagine first week or even month sales are more important than first day sales.
The only battle first day sales could possibly help win is the PR war. Otherwise, you look at weekly or monthly sales, not to mention longevity of sales, to determine a games success I would imagine.
Stef Geiger @ Nov 29th 2007 11:59AM
Yeah, this "we need to sell 1 million on the first day" thing is rather nonsensical. Yes, obviously every dev and publisher wants to sell a lot and fast, but in the long run, if the game sells a million in the first day or the first six months, it's still the same amount of revenue. They should have said "We need to sell x.x million copies of this game to make it worthwhile."
Wonderflex @ Nov 29th 2007 12:09PM
We don't know how game investors are paid though. Maybe those who foot the money for initial costs are contracted to recieve X amount of return by certain dates, and if it can't be provided then fee's are added on to their return cost. We have to remember that as much as developers may want to make money, those who place money into projects want it even more.
Seeing how I doubt I'll ever be on the investing side of any video game production soon this is just a theory.
Ithilis @ Nov 29th 2007 3:47PM
The "sell 1 million on the first day" expectation isn't quite as nonsensical as you may think. Selling 1 million copies over a year is great, sure, but it only generates an equal amount of profit over a much longer period of time, and that slows down further development. If Konami was able to sell 1 million copies of MGS4 within the first day or week, they'd immediately recoup the development costs for the game and re-structure their budget for other titles.
I think it IS unreasonable for a first day expectation, but I can't blame them for wanting to get into the black as soon as possible. If they don't recoup their development costs within the first few months, they'll make a cheap 360 port to recover the rest..
Riine @ Nov 29th 2007 11:36AM
I agree with Ryan. This is the first game I will getting for my PS3. Everything else is just rentals but Uncharted has been able to impress me so far.
Just me.. @ Nov 29th 2007 11:34AM
explain small install base? compared with every other launch... another BS story to fill the gaps.
Autopsy15 @ Nov 29th 2007 11:23PM
Small install base as in 5.5 million users. Compared to Xbox's 13.4 million users. It would be hard to get 1 million out of only 5 to buy a game on its first day is the point.
Carl @ Nov 29th 2007 12:04PM
If they advertise properly, and hyped this game up like the Halo Series (and I mean coke commercials, to commercials that we will all get sick of after watching on every channel, heck even a limited edition PS3) then they this game can can hit 1 million right away. But if they advertised it like crap..then i doubt it will reach 1mil
Eddie @ Nov 29th 2007 12:58PM
The problem is MGS has always been marketed differently. I don't really know if its because of its Japanese origins, but it seems like MGS's creators have never had an interest in creating a mass marketable product as much as wanting to create videogame art. This game may well be worth the marketing hype, but given how important this game is to Sony (and in turn, how much control has been given to the devs/creator), I doubt you'll see the all out blitz this will need (at least in the west) to break those numbers.
Eddie @ Nov 29th 2007 12:58PM
@ Carl:
The problem is the amount of control the devs and creator have over every aspect of MGS. I don't know if it's because of the Japanese culture or because the creator seems more interested in art than a mass-market product, but something tells me this game won't get the all out marketing blitz Halo got. At least not in the west.
Eddie @ Nov 29th 2007 4:05PM
Sorry, blogging n00b got pwned by the reply system. Feel free to vote down one or the other.
velocitystrike @ Nov 29th 2007 11:39AM
"To have the most first party development -- more than Nintendo and Microsoft combined."
That'll be difficult...
Dan @ Nov 29th 2007 12:14PM
"velocitystrike said...
"To have the most first party development -- more than Nintendo and Microsoft combined."
That'll be difficult..."
I'd say it would be quite easy as Microsoft do almost no 1st party development and at the end of the say Nintendo don't really do very many games full stop.
velocitystrike @ Nov 29th 2007 12:48PM
Meh, I disagree, and it's nothing a bit of fact-hunting won't solve. Anyhoo, this chap said "together", which makes the idea seem even less plausible.
^^
Josh @ Nov 29th 2007 11:53AM
I have no doubt in my mind MGS4 will sell a million copies on the first day. I predict 1.5 million copies of MGS4 and 500,000 PS3 consoles.
RC @ Nov 29th 2007 12:02PM
The most important part of the interview was the following.
"We're telling our fans that if you want to play 'Metal Gear Solid 4', you have to buy a PS3," said Ryan Payton, the assistant producer of the game.
"The PlayStation brand has always been good to us, and we're pretty bullish on the PS3."
As for a low user base, sales are really picking up and there should be 10-12 million PS3's out there by the time this releases. MGS4 will make plenty of money.
RazielDune @ Nov 29th 2007 12:05PM
this makes me laugh yet again since i think Hideo has more control over his product than konami i can see a fight brewing between him and konami if they want to go Multiplatform and i see it selling 1 million not the first day maybe but the first week like MGS,MGS2, and MGS3 also i see a huge boost in ps3 sales that day.
eclipse27 @ Nov 29th 2007 12:04PM
On a worldwide simultaneous release (NA, Japan, & Europe being the main targets) a million copies on the first day is easily attainable....with that scenario 1.5 or even 2 isn't out of the question for the 1st full week.
TheSh0wstopper @ Nov 29th 2007 12:06PM
Unfortunately, I do not think MGS will sell that many in its first week! The fact remains PS3 users do not buy games at the same rate as Xbox users. I'm suprised im not seeing any posts about this but Uncharted only sold 40,000 in its first week. That is horrible. Now if good games like Uncharted, Ratchet and Heavenly Sword dont sell when they are the only games out, how is a game supposed to sell 1 mill on the first day when there will be plenty of games for it to compete with. A few days before Uncharted came out I made a post about Sony finally doing their part and releasing games but the users dont do their part and buy them.
Dont shout blind Fanboyism "BUT ITS MGS AND IT WILL PWN THE WORLD". It can be the best game ever made but if people dont buy it it will all for nought... until it comes out for 360. Unless PS3 users start buying they can kiss big time exclusives and the idea of 3rd party's using PS3 as the lead development out of the window. Be prepared for more delays, lost exclusives and bad ports.
Sad but true...
-TheSh0wstopper
Jevanzz @ Nov 29th 2007 12:58PM
What's the source of that 40,000 Uncharted remark? Besides, the game has yet to hit here, Europe. Also "The fact remains PS3 users do not buy games at the same rate as Xbox users." - PS3's userbase is HALF the size of the 360s. Do you expect people to buy the SAME GAME twice?
Besides, I've neither seen nor heard Uncharted advertised anywhere - and it comes out in 9 days. Come to think of it, I only saw a Ratchet and Clank advert on TV yesterday. If Sony can hit the marketing on the head, they're bound to hit 1m copies. I'd love to see the American "World of Entertainment" adverts here in the UK, not the BS they give us, "This is Living".
I showed both US and EU adverts to buddies of mine, 360 followers, and 4/5 of them said they'd consider buying a PS3 after seeing the US advert. They thought the EU advert was, to say the least, crap.
Hyams @ Nov 29th 2007 12:58PM
1) Uncharted has not yet been released in Europe or Japan. MGS4 will be a simultanious worldwide release.
2) Uncharted and Heavenly Sword were both new IPs. MGS4 is the latest edition of a long running, very successful and extremely popular series.
3) R&C is a cartoony platformer. MGS4 appeals to the hardcore 'gotta kill peoplez' attitude of many of the current PS3/360 owner.
4) MGS4 is hyped up more than Heavenly Sword, R&C, and Uncharted.
5) Heavenly Sword and Uncharted got a metacritic score of lower than 90/100 - for some reason many hardcore gamers consider anything lower than a 90/100 to be crap. MGS4 will quite likely attain an average of at least 90/100.
6) MGS4 is being released later than Heavenly Sword, Uncharted and R&C; therefore the PS3 install base will be larger.
Byron517 @ Nov 29th 2007 12:43PM
You should also take into consideration that the PS3 has just hit it's first year mark.. Yeah it's been rough but sales are on a rise, 294% increase to be exact! Now I'm not saying that MGS4 is going to sell a million copies but I believe that this following year 08 is going to be the year that Sony is going to push ahead on all 8 cyclinders! I feel that Uncharted sales will increase due to the hoildays as well and if things continue on this current trend Sony will have a very successfull Holiday. I feel that MGS4 was pushed back for the very reason of allowing the user base to increase and to also polish the game more.. I have no doubt that it's going to be very very good and personally I can't wait!
kentuckyfried @ Nov 29th 2007 3:46PM
damn...that's really sad about Uncharted. I certainly hope that figure isn't true.
I make it a point to buy most of the "good" ps3 releases (hell, I even picked up Lair, haven't tried it yet). The only time I don't buy is if the ps3 version is deplorable or is an Xbox exclusive.
That said, I'll buy Bioshock again if it comes out on the ps3 and is of decent quality.
Autopsy15 @ Nov 29th 2007 11:26PM
"Dont shout blind Fanboyism "BUT ITS MGS AND IT WILL PWN THE WORLD". It can be the best game ever made but if people dont buy it it will all for nought... until it comes out for 360."
Yeah and it's on 6 DVDs, runs at 5 fps, then bricks your console.
Jevanzz @ Nov 29th 2007 12:25PM
What's the source of that 40,000 Uncharted remark? Besides, the game has yet to hit here, Europe. Also "The fact remains PS3 users do not buy games at the same rate as Xbox users." - PS3's userbase is HALF the size of the 360s. Do you expect people to buy the SAME GAME twice?
Besides, I've neither seen nor heard Uncharted advertised anywhere - and it comes out in 9 days. Come to think of it, I only saw a Ratchet and Clank advert on TV yesterday. If Sony can hit the marketing on the head, they're bound to hit 1m copies. I'd love to see the American "World of Entertainment" adverts here in the UK, not the BS they give us, "This is Living".
I showed both US and EU adverts to buddies of mine, 360 followers, and 4/5 of them said they'd consider buying a PS3 after seeing the US advert. They thought the EU advert was, to say the least, awful.
Jay @ Nov 29th 2007 12:28PM
metal gear solid 4 will sell more than 1,000,000+ copies the day it releases and will blow halo 3 and all its records back to where they came from. you can count on it.
Leobebes @ Nov 29th 2007 12:58PM
Jay your valiant prediction is nothing but fanboy hyperbole. The reason MSG4 cannot ever reach the scope of Halo 3 because Halo has had concrete online community aspect to it for the last three years MSG4 is a long drawn out single player campaign. This is not to say Halo 3 is a better game, its just fact.
aaron_k7 @ Nov 29th 2007 12:34PM
This is depressing...
Ghaleon @ Nov 29th 2007 12:57PM
I guess Mario did that if you count the US/JP userbases' Day 1 sales -- if Mario barely achieved that it's hard to see that happening on the Playstation's way lower userbase.
Assassin's Creed was probably the most-hyped game on Playstation 3 this holiday (when people buy more games) and it sold a couple hundred thousand.
chris.westermann @ Nov 29th 2007 1:11PM
So a million in one week won't cut it? WTF? Even Nintendo's Mario Galaxy only hit one million in 2 weeks, so what is Konami smoking? I am sure MGS4 will be a hit game, but I don't think its going to sell 1 million in a day, or even its first month. And even if it hits 1 million a few weeks after released, its still going to cover their production costs. What Konami has to realize is that despite the high production costs, they have developed an engine for the PS3 platform, meaning that MGS5 and new franchises should take 1/3 of the time and budget and still come out a winner.
Frank @ Nov 29th 2007 1:24PM
Yea, even though I'd like it to sell that well, I dont think 1 million in first week is in the cards for them.
Myke @ Nov 29th 2007 1:26PM
Not only will this game be a success on day 1, it will also be a system-seller. People wants this game badly. Thats not just the US, thats Japan and the PAL territory. If they really can release this game world-wide on the same day or same time period, it will be great day for the MGS franchise and Sony as a whole.
After MGS4 and MGSO success as an exclusive, I believe other companies will want to develope exclusively on PS3 to become THAT game everybody talks about and wants.
nihillasohen @ Nov 29th 2007 3:05PM
I don't believe that MGS will sell a million copies an day one, but I do believe it will be hugely successful. This is the first game that will show the power of the PS3, and will hit the target market for hardcore gamers. This will be a system seller, no doubt! I think it is obvious that Sony or retailers will bundle this game in all territories which will boost sales of the system. This creates buzz! Everyone will be talking about the PS3, and this will make it the most successful game on the PS3 to date. Of course this will only last until FF 13 releases!
The1 @ Nov 29th 2007 3:06PM
This game cannot release anytime around GTA4 or there will be issues.
Brad @ Nov 29th 2007 3:54PM
Can somebody please list the "15 exclusives" that the Sony rep refers to in the article?
(We aren't counting Motorstorm and Resistance add-on packs in that total, I hope!)
Dehshizknight @ Nov 29th 2007 4:14PM
Well, I've never played any Metal Gear Solid games so I think I should get this game after playing the previous titles. I guess I'll try to beat the previous games quickly because I am really excited to get this game.
Do I have to play the previous games to know the story? Or is it like Ratchet and Clank where there is a story, but isn't totally necessary?
MadOne @ Nov 29th 2007 4:52PM
To sell 1 million on day one will be very hard. As for producing more 1st party games than both Nintendo and Microsoft, I think they can pull that one off.
Kenology @ Nov 29th 2007 5:12PM
No matter how many more PS3's Sony sells between now and the time MGS4 will be released, there's no way the game is gonna sell a million copies on it's first day - not even worldwide.
Popfrogs @ Nov 29th 2007 7:17PM
I have a nice recipe for Crow when you're ready to eat it next year. MGS4 is huge worldwide, not just in the US or in Japan. The Japanese are _freaks_ when it comes to this game.
If they market it right it'll sell a million on day one, easily.
Parker @ Nov 29th 2007 10:55PM
You want to sell 1 million the first day? Then start advertising the damn game NOW. What exactly are you waiting on? You need to give it the full on ad blitz like we saw with Halo. MGS on Mountain Dew, MGS on Doritos, MGS themed PS3, MGS 'making of' specials on TV, worldwide MGS launch parties.
I think Sony relies too much on word of mouth whereas MS crams their products down the masses throats. Granted I loathe that type of advertising but it seems to work.
ComicShaman @ Nov 30th 2007 12:23PM
Well, they are advertising it now. It shows up on the new mutating black PS3 commercials. The full blitz should come closer to the actual release. Y'know... when they firm up the date.
Ether02 @ Nov 29th 2007 10:55PM
no those numbers for uncharted was for 2 days and basically consisted of pre orders and copies sold early by gamestop and other stores before the official release date. according to vchartz uncharted sold 127,138 in a week in a half. I guess thats ok for the ps3 north American install base , but I don't understand why assassin creed can sell so well on ps3 and sony's A+ exclusives can't do the same. I wish more people will buy games instead of renting so that I can get some sequels to my favorite games.