Analysts continue optimistic predictions, PS3 to meet Wii sales in 2011

by Andrew Yoon { Dec 10th 2007 at 9:15PM }

The PS3 was originally touted as a machine with a "ten year life span." Well, we can see why Sony is banking on such a long console life -- PS3 is on its way to gaining some serious momentum, if analysts can be believed. With a shaky first year, many have ridiculed the PS3 for its high price and limited software library. Upcoming exclusives in 2008 and the recent price drop are just the first steps for Sony to regain the audience it captured in the PS1 and PS2 eras.

"Despite increasing PS3 sales, we do not expect any significant shift in PS3 market share in Sony's favor until mid 2008," analyst Jesse Divnich said. "A shift will likely be the result of continued hardware price cuts and the release of several AAA titles such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto IV-both of which is expected to be released near the half-way point of 2008."

Looking beyond that, Screen Digest is predicting that PS3 will overtake the Xbox 360, and will even match the success of the Wii years into the future. "As more games become available for the PS3 next year, sales are expected to rise even further, says Mr Harding-Rolls, so that by 2011 the PS3 will have caught up with the Wii." While that would be fantastic for PS fans everywhere, it certainly won't be an easy feat for Sony to accomplish. Will Sony really be able to make good on such optimistic outlooks next year?

[Via Joystiq]

Tags: analyst, ps3, sales, screen-digest

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Ruben @ Dec 10th 2007 9:49PM

I doubt it will be that long, not because im a fanboy, but because I myself own a wii, and when your a hardcore gamer, this stuff gets boring, I mean I still own it just for Brawl! Even the casual gamers such as my mom, couple of brothers and my brother in law pick it up for about 20 minutes and then put it down like wow it moves when i do... kinda. But people just don't frikin let go of my ps3! They're like! Put that airplane game where you play with people on the internet, or the boxing game that looks real, or the street fighting game with that rappers, or the skateboarding game thats like real skating, or the game of the cars jumping off mountains with trucks and motorcycles! It doesn't stop, then they all want to go through my demo collection! Its such an expandable experience! Even though my wii cost a lot less than my PS3, I felt cheated out of my money when I bought my wii, don't get me wrong, its nice and all, but at the same time, graphics that hardly surpass the PS2? No DVD Player? 512MB? Can't see videos with audio? Non rechargeable controller?

The point is that once informed people (The people that don't go: OOO, you move it!) know how much more they are getting for $150 more, they won't think twice in lating the cash down.

stevie @ Dec 10th 2007 9:41PM

OMG DUH DID ANYONE EVEN EVER DOUBT THIS I MEAN SONY OWNZALMOST ALL EVERYTHING PEOPLE WOULD WANT LIKE MOVIE TV VIDEOGAMES TVSHOW MUSIC ETC ETC ETC ETC ETC I MEAN COME ON MICROSOFT LOL SOME STUPID OPORATING SYSTEM THAT ONLY GODAMN NERDS GOD I CAN'T WAIT FOR GTA4

sam-evans @ Dec 10th 2007 9:50PM

Sony are going to need to market GTA IV for PS3 more than Micro$oft market it for 360

Another price cut to put PS3 and 360 at the same price will boost sales

ryano @ Dec 10th 2007 9:55PM

I agree with this chart.

as someone who recently bought an xbox 360 i decided to wait for games that I wanted to play. right now.*

basically i got it for the top 5-6 games that metacritic lists for the 360, and some games that i missed last year.

PS3 didn't have that. right now.

however, next year outside of Ninja Gaiden 2 and Fable 2, most of my attention will be given to the PS3.

most of the games that I'm interested in will be out next year on the PS3.

*this is mainly why the 360 is doing better than the PS3 right now. for games and price, the 360 is a better buy at the moment. I see it and many other potential 'next-gen' buyers see it too. next year this will change for the PS3s favor. It is a beast awakening. I can't wait.

evilJaze @ Dec 11th 2007 10:48AM

I agree. I also just bought a 360 after resisting with all my might for over a year. I also bought mine to play the games that I can't play on the PS3 or my 4 year old computer. The way I see it, it's cheaper to spend the $399 CAD for an XBOX than $4000 for a new PC that can play the likes of Bioshock etc. After looking at the hardware though, I can see that the 360 will last nowhere near as long as the PS3 (no HD media, no bluetooth, no expandability, expensive peripherals, no built-in wireless support, loud etc) so I'm treating mine as a disposable temporary solution.

Kenology @ Dec 10th 2007 10:09PM

It's funny how these analysts just assume Nintendo and Microsoft are just gonna sit by and watch Sony gain market share without take preventive measures of their own. If ever the PS3 became a threat, there are plenty those two can do to stave it off. On the contrary, I can definitely see the real possibility of the PS3 catching the XBox360 (worldwide), but I don't think it'll ever catch the Wii. But these analysts just prove over and over that they talk out of their asses.

Leo @ Dec 11th 2007 7:46PM

Not like M$ did loads to prevent Wii from overtaking it.

Just saying.

John @ Dec 10th 2007 10:10PM

I liked this article. It made statements, then backed them up, leaving us with an open-ended question. The general press is still tending to see PS3 as the loser in this race-- but because Sony carefully corrected a slew of problems (none of them related directly to any failure of the machine itself), including that ridiculous "marketing" company that got axed, we're on the downhill slope, now.

John @ Dec 10th 2007 10:13PM

Yeah, the Wii is a funny thing. I was very impressed by Mario Galaxy-- for a last-gen game. It had better effects than ps2, and the framerate from what I saw was rock solid. The music was good, it had high production values throughout. As do a handful of games for the Wii. But I actually cannot see spending $250 for that machine! That's what's strange, as a ps3 owner who used to think of maybe getting another device (x360 or wii or both), I just feel like the ps3 is Home.

ryano @ Dec 10th 2007 10:22PM

Mario Galaxy is actually the only game i'm remotely curious about right now. but i can't see getting the Wii for just that tho. I made that mistake for Zelda 64.

i'm not really comfortable with any of the next gen systems.

I did realize that most of my friends would be on Xbox Live this year into next so that's ultimatly why I made that choice.

It's been a riot of a time. I am getting more curious to see what the PS3 can do next year tho.

ssloan60 @ Dec 10th 2007 10:51PM

meh who cares.

Frank @ Dec 10th 2007 11:00PM

Well as long as the analysts are optimistic, this is sure to happen.

P @ Dec 10th 2007 11:07PM

2011?? Does anyone seriously think either the 360 or Wii will still be the flagship console for Microsoft & Nintendo in 4 years time (its end of 2011) because i have my doubts about Microsoft seeing as they released 2 consoles during the lifetime of the PS2, and the Wii... who knows, of the 3 current gen consoles its the weakest in its hardware but can get away with it, but i'd bet both Nintendo & Microsoft are will have already started promoting their new consoles by 2011 if its not already released while the PS3 is still sitting under peoples TVs, Microsoft will have finally noticed maybe next-gen gear should be put into a next-gen machine, and Nintendo & an ever-aging Mario will be rolled out to flog yet another console ;)

kingofwale @ Dec 10th 2007 11:09PM

Anyone who thinks Wii will last until 2011 has obviously no idea about what Wii really is

It will be sure be replaced around 2010. It's like saying that Gameboy prediction in 1998 that GameBoy will sell 200 million units by 2009

andyscout @ Dec 10th 2007 11:18PM

wow... i was expecting more flames... but this seems to actually be a civilized conversation.

i love my PS3, but i think analysts talk out of their asses sometimes. i mean, look at the chart. the ps3 just suddenly jumps like right nowish. yeah, i'm sure MGS4 and other prospects will help the sales of the system, but i think its kinda difficult to say "oh yeah, all the sudden everyone's gonna buy a PS3" becasue it's really hard to guage these things. i mean, if you asked me which console was going to sell the best at launch, two years before any were released, i woulda said PS3 because of the the success of the PS2. obviously i was wrong.

anyway, i'd love this to be true, because i like my PS3 and i think it's a great machine that is capable of great things.

doc j @ Dec 11th 2007 12:21AM

for the flaming please see the corresponding article on joystiq.

actually, save yourself and stay clear.

Dru @ Dec 10th 2007 11:23PM

I think that Sony will catch MS, but I think that middle of '08 isn't realistic. I think by the end of '08 things will be close(especially considering those worldwide sales that will really help Sony) enough to make MS really worried. By then it will be too late for MS to make a difference.

I think the real turning point was the price drop and the recent release of some quality exclusives. Early next year will see DMC4 (huge in Japan), LBP, Home, GTAIV, the continued dominance of BDs and expected push into HD tvs, that will continue the PS3 growth. MGS will hit in late spring/early summer and then we'll see another spike in Sony's favor. Make a long story short, '08 is going to be a big year for the PS3 & PSP.

Now as for the Wii...well, 2011 is quite a ways off so we'll just have to wait and see. NMH was released with literally zero interest in Japan and that's just another example of the Wii owner's inability to support anything not developed by Nintendo. This is a serious problem for them and will, IMO, ultimately be the demise for the Wii. No games, well, very few good games, and no third party support is bad, bad news for gamers who bought the system for games not novelties.

Andy @ Dec 10th 2007 11:27PM

It seems like the initial bad press and lack of word of mouth might hurt Sony in the long run. I hear people talking about Xbox's much more in the halls. But then again Xbox owners are traditionally more geeky and aren't ashamed to talk about video games.

I don't think any console will catch up to the Wii.

Ithilis @ Dec 11th 2007 12:11AM

Nice generalization there! How about this one: "Traditionally, Playstation owners are more arrogant and like to make stupid, holier-than-thou remarks on the internet.."

matthew_neitzer @ Dec 11th 2007 1:25AM

And generally Ithilis's tend to freak out over little things taken the wrong way because they hit a little too close to home. Gosh, lighten up. :)

mike @ Dec 11th 2007 3:27AM

According to the screen digest the graph shows the PS3 should have caught up with the 360 in about 20 days time (this graph was done this time last year and show how badly the ps3 has performed against expectations this year) ie end of 07.... it would need to outsell the 360 in the region of 500,000 month on month for the next year just to catch up by the end of 08, when exactly is is magic turnaround going to happen?

Seriously last month the 360 outsold the ps3 by 240,000 in the US this month it will be about 350,000, even adding in JP and EU sales its not even close to catching the 360 and by catching i mean closing the amount of units it is falling further behind each month..

Imbro @ Dec 11th 2007 11:44AM

The world does not revolve around the US. Europe is a bigger marked, it's starting to really pick up speed over here. And I'd like you give a reference of "even adding in JP and EU sales last month it's not even close to...".

kingofwale @ Dec 11th 2007 6:04AM

>Seriously last month the 360 outsold the ps3 by 240,000 in the US this month it will be about 350,000,

Haha, back that data please?

P @ Dec 11th 2007 10:52AM

He's right folks, It outsold it in the US, and as we all know the US is the world, nowhere else exists, the PS3 really is doomed.
yawn

Brian Spence @ Dec 11th 2007 7:18AM

It will be a very cheap blu-ray player in the future, and when bd wins the format war, more people will adopt it at a faster rate. Games optimized for the PS3 will be much better than their 360 counterparts.

finelicker @ Dec 11th 2007 7:39AM

I think people underestimate what LBP will do when it hits the shelves. With the right advertising campaign, it will make consoles fly off the shelves.

Pete @ Dec 11th 2007 9:27AM

According to that graph, the PS3 has already passed the 360 in worldwide install base (the two lines cross just before the 08 hash mark). And that simply isn't true. The PS3's install base is roughly half the 360's.

If they can't get that right, it really calls their whole article into question.

Jason @ Dec 11th 2007 11:17AM

If you look at the * it says: Year-end figures. That would mean that by about the end of 2008 they expect the PS3 to over take the 360. That is possible.

Pete @ Dec 11th 2007 11:26AM

Are you sure that is possible?

According to the graph, the PS3 will have an installed base of ~9M by the end of 2007. And by the end of 2008, it looks like it is around 22M.

That is 15M consoles sold worldwide in a year. That's 1.25M consoles a MONTH! There would have to be a Christmas on the 25th of every month in 2008 for it to sell that much.

What makes them think that the PS3 can rocket to sales of 1.25M every month?

Jason @ Dec 11th 2007 12:13PM

I can't speak for whoever came up with this, but it is theoretically possible to sell that many consoles in one year. If the demand is there, it could happen. Thats all I meant.

They could be figuring in another price cut, plus several high profile exclusives like MGS and GT5, plus an increased demand for High Def content like blu-ray. I dunno, but one thing is for sure if other 'analysts' are correct it won't matter for long because the world is gonna end in December of 2012 anyway :)

chris @ Dec 11th 2007 2:53PM

You don't base your estimates on a "possible" max sales ammount. If you do that you also have to make a graph showing an equally possible minimum sales ammount at the same time, or take the average and put that onto the one graph.

...And you can't say, on this graph where 1.5m-ish are sold per month, that Sony could just as easily sell half a million more each month as it could half a million less. (Hope that made sense..)

Also, (out of context) if you think about it, if the PS3 catches up to the Wii only at the end of its lifetime then Sony still lose because up until that point there have been more Wiis in people's homes, so Nintendo sells more games and has been making more money than Sony for that whole period.

i.e. this graph is pretty pointless

Starfire @ Dec 11th 2007 9:56AM

I love the PS3, but to say it'll overtake the Wii, or to say things about 2011 seems a bit far-fetched. It's true there aren't so many good games on the Wii- but it has some of the best, plus they are very accessible and not too 'hard core' for the average person. I'm pleased for Nintendo, they earned their success and created a household name for themselves.

The PS3's best hope is to overtake the 360; if they want to take on Nintendo they'll have to wait for the PS4 era.

Still, people come over to play on my PS3 and are amazed by the graphics, sound, excitement factors. When the 'big games' come out next year, we will see what it's really made of.

Sora57 @ Dec 11th 2007 10:13AM

I have the PS3 and the Wii. 2011 is pretty far off for predictions in gaming, but the PS3 has a TON of ground to catch the Wii. I don't see it happening. Nintendo is not going to sit still for 3+ years-- they are going to improve the Wii's line up of games and/or come out with their next gen Wii console. And not many are going to buy the PS3 as somply bluray player even if the bluray format wins-- most people will be confused by the XMB and not know how to play their movie and/or manipulate the settings once it starts.

I love the PS3. It will do fine, but it will need awesome games just to play catch-up.

morganfell @ Dec 11th 2007 11:01AM

Could this damn website have something positive to say about a positive PS3 story once? Just once? The fact is your Joystiq anti-Sony leanings are so prominent you ought to be ashamed to call this damn place PS3 Fanboy. No one is asking you to lie. But just once, just once try taking a noncynical, nonsceptical look at a Sony story.

Andrew Yoon @ Dec 11th 2007 11:16AM

Did you even read the article?

morganfell @ Dec 11th 2007 1:26PM

Yes I did, did you? If you look you will see it is full of doubt.

chris.westermann @ Dec 11th 2007 11:11AM

This is so dumb because the Wii will not be around in 2011. Honestly, I doubt there will be much talk about the Wii by 2009. The Wii isn't a next gen system. Sure, it has a novel way to interact and play games, but this is the ONLY new technology Nintendo incorporated into the Wii. Eventually, developers are going to hit a brick wall in terms of graphics and processing power that will prevent them from creating cross-platform titles (i.e. PS3 and Xbox titles will be signifcantly more state of the art then the Wii can handle and developers will not want to cripple their game just to run on the Wii). The Wii will also significantly hinder their ability to create GOOD exclusive titles that will compete well with what the Xbox and PS3 camps will be offering. If Nintendo is not developing a new game console now that combines the Wii innovation with excellent processing specs, then the Wii will end up becoming the biggest white elephant in gaming history. I think the Wii is setting up for a huge fall, tens of millions of people are going to collectively yell WTF Nintendo as they realize how little real innovation this "next gen" console offers them.
Also any "analyst" worth their salt will realize that there is no way that the Wii's sales will continue linearlly over the next few years. Nintendo is artificially keeping demand high and "linear" because they are purposely keeping retail stock levels low. Had Nintendo released 20 million units at launch they would have been all sold by now, but sales would have dropped significantly a year later. By trickling out units they can keep demand high while still appearing to have linear growth. Eventually the Will will hit a saturation point (probably mid next year) and sales will plateau or even drop off by then, both from the fact that everyone wanting a Will will have one, and also because those that might be interested in it won't want it because they will find its game library full of childish party games and derivative Wii-sport titles. If you look at the ratings for most Wii games, few are even worth a rental, and once the gimmick of motion control wears off, its ultimately good software that sells a gaming system.

chris @ Dec 11th 2007 3:07PM

"Nintendo is artificially keeping demand high and "linear" because they are purposely keeping retail stock levels low."

That's a very, very interesting point. Do you know if it's true? It makes so much sense, because as we all know, if something is "Sold Out", it's obviously very good, especially if it sells out quickly. The fact that there are deliberately less consoles is irrelevant, from a buyer's perspective, only that if they want one, they have to buy it quickly.
The result: everyone suddenly wants a Wii, because more people are flocking to the shops to get one that any other console, and people are generally right. (If a bomb goes off and everyone's running away, you'd best run with them.)

Thank you for giving me that epiphany.

Jason @ Dec 11th 2007 11:11AM

The one thing I see the PS3 having that the others do not, is solid High Def capabilities (standard HDMI out, and Blu-Ray). As more people move to HDTV the PS3 will become an attractive piece of hardware to a more diversified set of people.

The things that will hold it back are it's price and it's lack of appeal for the more casual video game players; two things that go hand in hand. In the video game market it is expected that the "hardcore" gamers will probably buy all three systems, because they want to be able to play the AAA titles from all three. The casual gamer will settle for one system and they'll probably consider price as the main factor. That is why the Wii is on top. If the Xbox or PS3 was $199, they would be romping the Wii right now, simply due to the priorities of the casual demographic.

RangerPrimeX @ Dec 11th 2007 1:57PM

Won't Nintendo and Microsoft be on their next console by 2011. Only Sony is talking about a 10 year cycle.

Sora57 @ Dec 11th 2007 2:18PM

@20 Mike...

The graph indicates that each tick mark is for year end. So the mark 20 days from now is the 2007 tick mark, which is accurate. It is the end of 2008 where things, according to the chart, tighten up. I think it's bull anyway.

chris @ Dec 11th 2007 2:24PM

Has anyone else noticed...
According to that very chart, PS3 has already overtaken XBox in install base? Look: they cross at the end of 07 (now). Surely that's not happened. I mean I know more PS3s were *selling* after the price drop, but in order to overtake one has first got to catch up!

According to that proof, the chart is unreliable.

chris @ Dec 11th 2007 2:30PM

my bad. only have a page up. Please delete

88Chaos88 @ Dec 11th 2007 5:40PM

I keep on hearing all this nonsense about Microsoft releasing an Xbox 720 or new console because of how weak the current hardware is sooner than later. Just to inform you guys that doing so within the 10yr PS cycle will automatically surrender the battle to Sony.
What do you think all those 360 users are going to do if MS releases a new console in 5-6 Yrs? Go out and buy the X720 for its initial 1 Yr catalog of siht games? Or continue with gamble that is the 360 hardware and drastic reduction of lead platform games? How about go out and grab a ps3 that is a fraction of the price of the new 720, with probably more 1st party titles than the 360 ever had and at a time where the true power of the PS3 is on view.
I’m sorry but most console gamers including 360 owners are NOT fanboys. They are just gamers looking for the best investment (soon to be PS3).