Hickey and Pachter talk Blu-ray and PS3
by Jem Alexander 
{ Jan 10th 2008 at 11:00AM }
Analysts. They say the funniest things. Two analysts have made their thoughts on Warner's choice to abandon the HD DVD camp very clear indeed. Both see this development as only being a good thing for, not only Blu-Ray but, as a result, the PS3. Mike Hickey of Janco Partners writes that "if Blu-ray can win the current format war, the true value of the PS3 can be unlocked, and will likely lead to an acceleration of PS3 sales". The ever-lovable Michael Pachter agrees, but indicates that sales of the PS3 will be intrinsically locked with penetration of HDTVs. Pachter further expects HDTVs to go from sub-10% penetration to over 50% later this year, which is when we're likely to see a spike in PS3 sales. Of course, all of this relies on Blu-Ray winning the format war. Though, with companies jumping off of HD DVD like rats from a sinking ship, we shouldn't have too much to worry about.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Ryan @ Jan 10th 2008 8:23AM
I think it is in the best interests of the consumer world that the war between Bluray & HD-DVD is resolved as soon as possible.
I personally have always prefered Bluray, not only because Im a PS3 man but because of its technical abities above its competitor. Regardless, I am surprised that this battle has jumped so far in the past week as all these 'analysts' predicted another year of competition.
If this is the end, fantastic...Sony can finally make up for the decades of anti-Betamax & establish the new STANDARD.
Undoubtly this will help PS3 sales but what I am worried about is the talk of a XBOX 360 add-on. Surely if Sony allows this, they are decreasing their core competencies over Microsoft?
Either way, great news but dont always trust the 'analyst.'
Dave @ Jan 10th 2008 9:31AM
I agree with his statement that PS3 sales are tied somewhat to HDtv sales. I'm 25 and most of my friends are in the same position at this point, finally got a decent job, paying good $, moved out and the first big purchase is a nice HDtv....then they've followed it up with a PS3 in the near future after that. Once the 40 gig model came out, 4 more of my friends jumped on the PS3 bandwagon. I think there will be some corrolation between HDtv penetration and PS3 sales as most people will wait until they have a TV that's capable of getting the most out of the 400 or 500 dollar investment in the PS3.
Akamaru @ Jan 10th 2008 11:18AM
I agree with The Patch™. I actually talked one of my co-workers [i]out[/i] of getting a PS3 until he replaces his archaic big screen SDTV. I mean, you still get the great gameplay but for gameplay alone, he already has the PS2. The PS3 without awesome HD graphics is like a BLT without bacon, it isn't.
XanthouS @ Jan 10th 2008 11:20AM
Personally, I will be purchasing my first HDTV set this fall, so mark me down toward that 50% figure.
Jim Bob billy @ Jan 10th 2008 11:25AM
I think this Blue-ray/ Hd-DVD thing is getting TOOOO much coverage
I really couldn't care less... I don't buy new films, I go to the cinema or buy films i want of e-bay... I bought my ps3 for games.. not the blue-ray player.
They really need to give it a rest, DVD will be the main format for at least another 2-3 years.
Darren Tilley @ Jan 10th 2008 11:40AM
You're right. All these blogs keep talking about the HD-DVD Blu-ray format war when it turns out that the very person they were written for "couldn't care less". Good thing you came forward an told them or they might have wasted time writing even more posts for you that you aren't interested in.
sp3cialk @ Jan 10th 2008 11:50AM
If they really wanted to see who would win the war offer movies on both formats... I could care less since I have both PS3 and 360. Both formats have their own pros and cons... so I don't prefer one over the other.
I think the sales of HDTVs will increase because the generally public doesn't know the difference between digital and HD. Being that FCC requires digital TVs by Feb. 2009 I see sales booming by end of the year.
proArchy @ Jan 10th 2008 12:01PM
With the movies that were offered on both formats the blu-ray version out sold the Hd-dvd version. thats why i started buying blu-rays instead of hd-dvds Also while digital adapters will be available, i think that a good amount of people would just as soon go out an purchase a new hd set. its hard to tell.
hplcman @ Jan 10th 2008 11:55AM
I would not have bought my PS3 if I wasn't getting an HDTV as well. There's no point getting a PS3 if you don't have a set that will allow you to marvel at all of the graphical splendor that comes with hi-def gaming and movies. And since Netflix allows you to rent the Blu-ray movies without any additional cost you have the best of all worlds. I am totally excited about this development and the future of the PS3. It will be nothing but good, I'm sure of it.
As for the 360, even if they create a blu-ray add-on I don't see the benefit of buying one. If this 'war' is indeed over just buy a dedicated blu-ray player for what will most likely be a similar price. As the 360 will not play games off blu-ray discs and the PS3 games are going to get bigger and more beautiful as the developers start to push the limits I'm happy to have purchased what I got!!!
Ghaleon @ Jan 10th 2008 12:30PM
Sub-10% to 50% HDTV penetration in a year? He gets PAID to say ludicrous shit like that?
Christian @ Jan 10th 2008 1:15PM
Yeah, it seems a little optimistic. But the low end LCD 720p TV's are getting very cheap very fast atm, so a significant sales increase is in the cards even if +40% market penetration seems a bit over the top.
gibson355 @ Jan 10th 2008 2:37PM
Well, here's how it worked out for me:
I bought the 60GB at launch, and ran it on my 27" SD (dont' snicker!) for about a year. Strangley, I would buy just about every decent game that came out, but I would only play a level or two becuase I knew I was missing out on the HD experience and didn't want to "waste" the game.
I kept carting my PS3 over to my dad's house to watch it on his glorious 1080p 52" Sony DLP, only to go back home and grumble to myself how much SD sucked.
An aside: if you have not seen what 1080p movies look like, you simply must find a friend with an 1080p HD set and a PS3 or HD-DVD player to see for yourself. It's astounding, really, and completely spoils your for SD. Watching AeonFlux, I had to resist the urge to scratch my eyeballs, and I found that I was unconsciously grinding my teeth. That's good video!
Eventually I just couldn't stand it any longer. I was compelled to get an HD set so I could see what I was missing and finally begin playing my library of partially-played ps3 games and Blu-ray movies. I sprung for the Aquos 32" LC-D32343U 720p which was $650 for a week or so at BestBuy.
I would not be surprised if many who bought a PS3 without HD experience a similar compulsion: It's impossible to hold out forever.
Knighthawk @ Jan 10th 2008 10:05PM
Sony does not make DPL, they make LCD! Just so you know! :P
gibson355 @ Jan 11th 2008 3:03AM
Thanks for the reply, Knighthawk. I see: SXRD vs DLP. Actually I was not aware of the distinction, so thank you. Still can't afford either, though. :-)
NetLethal @ Jan 10th 2008 2:49PM
I think they're pretty much on target. HDTVs are only going to get cheaper and cheaper, and not everyone who buys an HDTV is going to buy a $10,000 60" one. Hell, my 4 year old son has a 19" tv in his room that is capable of displaying 720p via component cables that only cost $200, and it has a built in dvd player (standard DVD, but still).
Jim @ Jan 10th 2008 3:12PM
"sub-10% penetration to over 50% later this year"
Pachter is a very nice man, but once again I ask: Was he at least with something right? I don't think so.
It's illusory to think that suddenly penetration will sky rocket by over 400% this year.
alienclays @ Jan 10th 2008 6:14PM
if you want HDhad and are close to your current tv, buy an HP lcd 22" computer screen for about $260 and use a dvi-hdmi cable, trust me, you'll be glad you did.