Microsoft predicts Blu-ray irrelevance in 12-18 months
by Andrew Yoon 
{ Mar 14th 2008 at 5:00PM }
Microsoft execs have been quick to point out that the Xbox will not be integrating Blu-ray into their console any time soon. Microsoft's European boss, Chris Lewis, is committed to bringing digital downloads to consumers, and believes that's where the future is. "Going forwards, digital downloads is really where it's at," Lewis told GamesIndustry.biz. Xbox Live Video Marketplace currently supplies downloadable HD rentals of movies and television shows. Sony's PS3 does not currently feature a similar service."Before very long we will look back wistfully at shiny discs as something that was somewhat a historic phenomenon in a way that we kind of think about vinyl or VCRs today," Lewis stated. While the Microsoft-backed HD DVD format has "died" in the next generation format wars, Lewis believes that Blu-ray will follow the same fate. When will digital distribution take dominance? "I think that's going to be the case in the next 12-18 months."
Digital distribution would be great if the movie selection and video quality could match the offerings of a disc-based medium. Blu-ray discs offer 1080p video, uncompressed video and special features. Without the proper infrastructure and bandwidth to support such large files, we think digital distribution of HD video will take much longer to truly proliferate. Ultimately, only time will tell.
[Via Joystiq]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
kingofwale @ Mar 14th 2008 5:05PM
wow, someone's still bitter. ;)
Frankly, I never liked blu-ray, it's just like modern computers, 640K of memory should be enough for anybody!!!!
aaron_k7 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:06PM
Have you watched a blu-ray movie?
The Sound @ Mar 14th 2008 5:14PM
Wooooosh!
DMeisterJ @ Mar 14th 2008 5:16PM
@ The sound
I agree, whoosh.
Phileoca @ Mar 14th 2008 6:03PM
lol.. wooosh.
someone obviously didn't know you're quoting Bill Gates with the "640k of memory" comment
kingofwale @ Mar 14th 2008 8:04PM
yeah, apparently MOST people didn't know the quote
*sighs*, comment was too witty for some.
mji245 @ Mar 15th 2008 4:01AM
my A$$ DO U THINK EVRY1 HAS A SUPER BROAD BAND WELL LET'S SEE IF EVERY1 IN THE WORLD HAS WHY SHOULD HE WASTE WHEN HE CAN RENT A BLU-RAY FILM FOR $5 KEEP IT MORE THAN A WEEK?BTW IF HD DVD WON WOULD HE SAY THAT BULL S**T?
Real Gambler @ Mar 15th 2008 8:05AM
Bill Gates never said that.... Check Wikipedia.
But now, if you want to talk about stupid quotes, how could someone say" Digital distribution will take dominance in 12 months" when they still sell a console with NO HARD DRIVE??? The internet backbone is not ready for streaming, and no matter what, people will want to store movies somewhere... Talk about vision!!!
evilJaze @ Mar 15th 2008 8:44PM
... whoosh-and-a-half: It was 64k not 640k... :p
aaron_k7 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:06PM
Thank you for pointing the obvious here that most people completely sidestep, that infrastructure and bandwidth requirements for digital distribution are far from where they need to be for this to work. M$ needs to suck it up and stop explaining away the demise of HD-DVD.
Ed @ Mar 14th 2008 10:07PM
Gee, who want's to bet that MS next xbox system comes out in 12-18 months and is a DD only system. I'd laugh my a** off.
Brett from Atlanta @ Mar 15th 2008 12:14PM
Thank you, finally someone said it.
farfisa @ Mar 14th 2008 5:09PM
Better than irrelevance a month ago!
doc j @ Mar 14th 2008 5:43PM
Touche.
n3rd @ Mar 14th 2008 5:10PM
i dont think digital distrobution will ever take over .. if it does , it will be a few years from now i personally would not take digital over physical unless they can offer up a way of seemless / timeless way of transfering content say i download 10 movies to my xbox 360 when the new xbox comes out it will undoubtedly not support the current xbox HDD so what i have to redownload 20gigs+ of movies no thanks..
and they will find someway to hack us apart , as with Steam any digital content can not be refunded or if the game is total garbage you can not return it or exchange for a new game
xvertigenx @ Mar 14th 2008 10:02PM
Exactly. Add that to the fact game companies make 100% profit on all games sold. Basically there will be no way to return a game or trade it in once you are finished. While a lot of people hate on Gamestop, there are tons of people out there that use Gamestop's services or ebay and the like to get back a little bit more cash to go towards new games or what have you.
With Digital distribution, there will be no way for a file to change hands, which is complete BS.
rob @ Mar 17th 2008 12:29AM
And what if you wanna let your friends borrow your game or trade games between each other. What if you are having a party at someone else's house and they ask you to bring your game? What if you don't have T1 internet to download it in the first place?
MS is just reaching for anything that can downplay BD now. Let's remember that they were the ones who said HDDVD was the format to overtake BD..now DD will take over BD. MS=jokes.
The Sound @ Mar 14th 2008 5:17PM
Boy I thought M$ were smart.
But then came teh 360 and all it's red ringed glory, Vista, HD-DVD, and so on...
Besides, doesn't 20gigs get filled pretty quick?
kingnick @ Mar 14th 2008 5:46PM
The 360's uses a transparent cache for most games hence 20GB goes a lot further than it would on the PS3 (no installing, smaller OS footprint).
HDD space isn't an issue for most people with either console. It's not like you have to leave games installed on the PS3.
aaron_k7 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:39PM
Yes it does. I have a 60 Gig PS3, and if it were a 20 Gig machine it would be overflowing now.
leiwei @ Mar 14th 2008 6:39PM
Space IS an issue on both consoles. On my 20gig PS3, it was filling up from all the movies and demos I put in. Thankfully it was an easy swap to a larger hd. $60 for 120gig at the time I got it. On my 360, my hd constantly runs out of space because of the demos they keep rolling out on XBL. I'm always deleting demos to make room for the new ones. Would've been nice if installing a bigger hd on the 360 was as easy as it was on the PS3.
Microdot @ Mar 16th 2008 3:42AM
"kingnick said...
The 360's uses a transparent cache for most games hence 20GB goes a lot further than it would on the PS3 (no installing, smaller OS footprint)."
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
no.
the 360 uses a RIDICULOUS amount of space for the os/cache. why in the hell do you think there is only about 13gb out of the 20gb (technically its 19.5gb, but we wont split hairs) that you can see on a BRAND NEW, FRESHLY OPENED system?
and as previously stated... sony does not force you into proprietary drives. i can put ANY sata 2.5" hdd in my system (currently running a 250gb). so if you ever DO run into a space issue... it is VERY easily resolved. and if you are completely technical handicap and cant follow the simple directions that require one screwdriver... then you can just plug in any usb hdd, and store your info on it.
aallawi2 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:26PM
If Microsoft really thinks this is the future, then they would have included non-optional Hard Disks with their consoles, otherwise its just PR.
Andir3.0 @ Mar 14th 2008 8:28PM
And Microsoft better start investing in nationwide broadband, because the US is still not even close! My parents are still forced to use a microwave transceiver/satellite/dial up to get internet. And none of those are real good for sustained bandwidth let alone any broadband.
DrunkRaba @ Mar 15th 2008 12:40AM
Exactly what I was thinking! This statement coming from the geniuses that put their console out with Hdd optional. Blu-ray may be irrelevant in a year, but the 360 was the day it launched.
ajiezer @ Mar 14th 2008 5:25PM
I'm beginning to be sick of that sore losers, enough already, M$ take it like a man will you
warlock7 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:26PM
The sad thing is that MS seems to think that Sony isn't going to be in the download business too. Stupid M$.
They also thought that the Zune could compete with the iPod. The Zune is a lot like the HD-DVD format. Nobody is really buying it and M$ is telling everybody that it is... Would you believe them?
aaron_k7 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:41PM
Agreed. The PS3 is already being developed to be a DVR for goodness sakes! But instead of waiting for the digital downloading to begin, Sony has blu-ray ready to offer the public in the here and now. Definitely a better strategy than M$: we're going to wait before we try to make money.
kingnick @ Mar 14th 2008 5:46PM
The Zune's not a great product, it simply lacking in all areas particularly marketing, quality and ease-of-use compared to the iPod.
I'd back MS over Sony when it comes to software as Sony have a track record of being DRM nazis (unplayable Casino Royale DVDs anyone) and failing to release fully complete software platforms (look at the PS3 and Blu-ray for example).
warlock7 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:26PM
The sad thing is that MS seems to think that Sony isn't going to be in the download business too. Stupid M$.
They also thought that the Zune could compete with the iPod. The Zune is a lot like the HD-DVD format. Nobody is really buying it and M$ is telling everybody that it is... Would you believe them?
warlock7 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:27PM
The sad thing is that MS seems to think that Sony isn't going to be in the download business too. Stupid M$.
They also thought that the Zune could compete with the iPod. The Zune is a lot like the HD-DVD format. Nobody is really buying it and M$ is telling everybody that it is... Would you believe them?
warlock7 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:28PM
WTF?!?! Triple post?!?!
ComicShaman @ Mar 14th 2008 5:54PM
Your comment bore repeating, I guess.
Glen @ Mar 14th 2008 5:33PM
Love how Microsoft is pushing digital distribution without putting a fucking hard drive in every 360.
tokyomaestro @ Mar 15th 2008 12:04AM
Read my mind, I agree. Also WTF M$, your Digital download service for HD movies are only in 720p, Bluray discs play in 1080p and there is a fuckin difference poor ass fanboys so I don't want to hear it.
glacier985 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:32PM
so what exactly is this guy smoking? Did he forget the millions of people who buy DVD's let alone don't even have enough HD space for movie downloads.
WeHasFanboys @ Mar 14th 2008 5:34PM
WeHasFanboys predicts Microsoft prediction irrelevance in 12-18 months.
aaron_k7 @ Mar 14th 2008 5:42PM
Hahahahahaha...I'll drink to that.
Michael C. Sherrin @ Mar 14th 2008 5:34PM
Microsoft's also forgetting they load their downloadable movies with DRM that limits what users can do with movies they legally buy. They can't take movies they download of Xbox Live to their iPod or their friend's house or hell, they can't even watch it after 24 hours. While digital distribution will of course grow, discs are still relevant because they're just easier to use, more efficient, and fit nicely into collections (like all our DVDs). Even if high def downloads were fast (they're not), with tons of selection (as if), and no DRM (in my fantasy), discs still have a place because people still like them. Why else would people buy DVDs of pirated movies on eBay for a couple of bucks instead of downloaded it themselves - they like having the disc.
******
Michael C. Sherrin
http://www.prodigeek.com/
WTF iz dat about @ Mar 14th 2008 5:38PM
wow they really don't let up on the bs do they?
glenn @ Mar 14th 2008 5:38PM
This is a stupid thing to say on MS behalf! ...
They spend months lobbying; 'hd-dvd is great, better than bluray, its the future'.
then a month after their format looses, they brand all discs as 'a thing of the past'.
Maybe theyv realised that they aint gona fit any half decent video games on a dvd within the next 12-18months and because they are too full of good old MS pride, they wont fit a bluray drive.
The only avenue that leavs is digital distribution.
Some of the quotes coming from the MS camp recently are laughable.
Most people who dont know much about technology could have even told MS that hd-dvd was never going to work!
Fraser JK @ Mar 14th 2008 5:40PM
Meh!
Watcher @ Mar 14th 2008 5:44PM
There are no words to really describe how stupid M$' statement is. So in 1 year, 4 months everyone is going to have super reliable broadband downloading movies with better quality than Blu-ray on to their huge HDD, they will feel fine about not being able to take it over to a friend's / family, etc?
I know for sure 2 years from now I'm still going to want to have some tangible control over my "paid-in-full" movies and I know I'm not alone.
Even their PR spins don't make sense anymore...
ajiezer @ Mar 14th 2008 6:01PM
Not alone indeed, even the stuff I have on my hd is also backed in in dvds, when I spend money I like the feeling of getting something I can keep, and not a virtual acquisition.
Dave White @ Mar 14th 2008 5:45PM
Is everyone also forgetting the fact that hard drives are not standard on every 360?
T-P-M @ Mar 14th 2008 6:01PM
I'd also point out that of those that do most are 20GB, which isn't enough for a whole single layer bluray. Even the largest 120GB would only be 4 and a bit single, or 2 double layer.
navsimpson @ Mar 14th 2008 5:49PM
Just to clarify - Blu-Ray is 1080p and high quality, but it's not uncompressed. An uncompressed HD movie takes up about a terrabyte. The whole point of VC-1 etc is to compress the film to make it fit on a disc.
Popfrogs @ Mar 14th 2008 8:49PM
We realize that, but it's lighty compressed with a high quality codec. Usually when we talk about uncompressed WRT Blu-ray we're talking about the audio stream.
Steve @ Mar 14th 2008 5:50PM
Look at Microsoft shaking in its boots. They've been pledging themselves to an expensive online service. They entered and lost in the HD disc era. Granted that in a year HDDs will be bigger and cheaper to accommodate such a transition, I still think the American consumer rather be able to share the disc with their friends and family. Pay-per-view still hasn't taken over. Blockbuster is still around and Netflix even made its way into all of this.
SOCOMRAIDER @ Mar 14th 2008 5:58PM
More like Blu-Ray will be irrelevant to MS. It will be a major factor to Sony, as PS3 games are ON Blu-Ray. The PS3 is not going anywhere, anytime soon, so neither is Blu-Ray. I agree that Blu-Ray won't replace DVD, at least not for a while. Hell there are people who still buy VHS.
But the biggest thing, single DVD games will be irrelevant to MS. As games will definitely out grow DVD storage space. Unless you are making low graphical games, like for the sorry Wii. At least Sony had the smarts to future proof their unit better..