Ex-SCEE boss: Sony and Nintendo hardware sales will tie by 2011
by Alan Tsang 
{ Aug 12th 2008 at 8:00AM }
Deering believes that "active installed base for hardware" will go from 316 million currently to over 500 million in the next three years. Heading the pack will be Sony and Microsoft, having both sold 230 million units. Sony will have sold 70 million PS3s, 90 million PS2s and 70 million PSPs. Nintendo will have sold 150 million units of the DS and 80 million units of the Wii. Microsoft will also experience "decent growth," totaling up to 40 million units of the Xbox 360 or any of its future incarnations by 2011.
What do you guys think? The numbers don't seem far-fetched to us, but why include PS2 numbers in a current-gen hardware tally?
[Thanks to everyone who sent this in!]
[Correction: Microsoft will have a total install base of 40 million, not 80 million.]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Jonathan Coole @ Aug 12th 2008 8:09AM
they're still stretching that 10 year thing and hoping that the ps2 will be a sign of "proof" probably
oldmike @ Aug 12th 2008 8:14AM
the wii is not realy next gen so we cant count it then
vask @ Aug 12th 2008 9:13AM
I think its Wii vs. PS2, PSP vs. DS, and PS3 vs. Xbox 360, Sonys competing in all platforms this generation and even though they arent exactly winning they are tailing their competitors in each respective area which is pretty impressive if you ask me.
JerJerBinks @ Aug 12th 2008 11:49AM
Graphics alone does not define a generation of gaming platforms. Nintendo's Wii is very much "this-gen" of gaming, as is the 360 and PS360. It might not have the flashy graphics, but they made sacrifices to improve the immersion via motion controls. I would say that if you didnt like the motions controls, get over it, this is now the direction of the console industry. Microsoft and Sony will adapt and the next generation of hardware will all have motion controllers.
oldmike @ Aug 12th 2008 12:39PM
haveing 4+ wacky controlers dose not make you next gen
under that book then PS2 IS next gen also
dancingtosirens @ Aug 12th 2008 2:41PM
...What the hell are you talking about oldmike?
I hate people who try to blindly claim the Wii isn't a next gen system.
MakaiOokami @ Aug 12th 2008 4:13PM
Then you guys will hate me as well. The Wii is NOT Next-Gen. It has a few new features of the GC and the Wii motes but I do not consider it a next-gen console.
The Next Generation experience is about connectivity and power. Not just graphical prowess but the ability to perform high calculations. For example the Wii can not even hold the power to have a game like Braid. Braid isn't some super high graphical game, but it's computational power is beyond that of the Wii.
Next Generation games need to have the ability to have high power physics Engines. They need the ability of easy online access and online community. The Wii is very much a "Sit at Home with friends" console with the occasional ability to hop online. The 360 and the PS3 are designed to be able to do a lot of things online and have a huge community.
I can not agree that the Wii is Next Generation. Nothing warrants that. It doesn't have the hard drive storage to allow a lot of downloadable distrobution. The PS2 and the Wii both have to use DLC discs with the DLC prepackaged in order to use DLC. That's not next gen that's what the PS2 had to do.
If you put a motion sensing component to the PS2, you would have a Wii lite. Sure the Wii can do a little bit more than the PS2 but it's still very similar in terms of computing power. There is no way that the Wii can handle these new physics engines and AI computations, with a strong online aspect. There's no way. That's why the Wii can not be Next-Generation...
The power glove didn't make the NES Next-Gen, the Dance mats didn't make the PS2 Next-Gen, the Golf club add on didn't make the PS2 Next-Gen, the Light guns didn't make Dreamcast Next-Gen, nor did the driving Wheel do it to any of the systems at all.
So what the hell makes you think that the news, weather, and a few gimmiks, packaged with the amazingly advanced 40 year old technology of LEDs makes the Wii Next-Gen... answer... it doesn't. No matter what, how much proccessing can be done on a game, defines wether or not a game is next gen. The things that we can do now that we never did before, is what makes things next gen. Nintendo went with a new controller scheme but many things are still impossible. The PS3 couldn't handle Disgaea 3, the Wii can't handle Disgaea 3, the Wii doesnt' get updates to improve game capabilities or to remove bugs, or to add features, it is NOT NEXT GENERATION. Deal with it.
MakaiOokami @ Aug 12th 2008 4:17PM
Sorry meant teh PS2 couldn't handle Disgaea 3 and neitehr could the Wii. That's why Disgaea 3 is a PS3 game and not a PS2 or Wii game.
Echnaton @ Aug 12th 2008 8:38AM
Interessting numbers ... a bit confusing ... microsoft will have a total of 80 millions, sony only 70 millions of PS3s ?
How does he get 230 ? 90+70+70+80 = 310 ...
He also lowers the PS2 install base ... a logic move ...
My guess is, that Sony will tie with Microsoft within the next two years ... hence before 2011 ...
stargateheaven @ Aug 12th 2008 8:45AM
"why include PS2 numbers in a current-gen hardware tally?"
I suppose it's still a contendor. Doesn't it sell more than 360s?
I wish they'd just switch their focus to ps3 now though.
MetalGearsOfSolidWar @ Aug 12th 2008 9:11AM
This thing screams PS3 vs. 360 fanboy wars. I swear >_>
His prediction sounds accurate, but it doesn't really mean nothing until we hit 2011.
vask @ Aug 12th 2008 9:09AM
I don't think its a stretch at all, i think they're promising people that they are providing them with a reliable system. Yes the PS2 is providing that proof through its longevity, but the 10 year plan was not a promise that was made during the early/middle of the PS2 era, it was a promise made with the release of the PSP and PS3. Its because of that i feel more confident with Sony's system. I am happy to know that the hardware i bought has lasted as long as it did with little problems and only convinces me to continue to support them.
Topher07 @ Aug 12th 2008 10:10AM
yeah, I think there is a reason why this guy is a "former" boss.
PS3 sales have been steadily outpacing Xbox360 sales this year and there are only around 4 million units separating the two in spite of Microsoft's 1 year lead. To say that Microsoft will still sell more units by 2011 then the PS3 is a sure sign of someone that shouldn't be working (and isn't) for Sony.
I also don't think the Wii will be around by 2011, another sign of a boss that needed to step down due to his inability to accurately guage his competition. Nintendo is already "leaking" rumours about a Wii successor which means they are at least 2 years away from a new release. The moment any concrete information about a Wii successor is released, sales of the Wii will plumet.
thinkofmeasmra @ Aug 12th 2008 12:05PM
id say judging by his pic it was due to his age (retirement) although he does still look about 15 years younger than John McCain lol
As for the numbers, xbox is up by a bit more than 4 mill i believe. I do however agree with you that the wii wont last till 2011 as the system truely sucks for games. There are like 3 1st party must haves and 1 3rd party. A total of 4! And this is because all thier emphesis is on that stupid controller that while has its advantages, still limits many many games from having a decent experience on the system (hence why if you want to play a racing game you gotta buy the wheel thing)
In my opinion, the Wii is simply a fad; the latest stupid trend and I say stupid because it uses Gamecube graphics with remote as a controller. Simple as that, and because of that wont have any amount of longevity.
HanzoTheRazor @ Aug 12th 2008 10:50AM
I think after 2009 a lot of people will be singin' a different tune of the PS3. Wii... 2011, hahahahah!
Salvatore Nuzzo @ Aug 12th 2008 11:30AM
Sweet, comes in on pay day!
ron1n @ Aug 12th 2008 11:31AM
chicken
saito ps3 @ Aug 12th 2008 11:36AM
lol, you guys should look at the 360fanboy comments on a anylists prediction of 360 outselling ps3....in the month of july, they all are getting excited because thats like the only good news for them this year, then they include reasons why ps3 sucks in the comments and how people will go to xbox 360 because ff13 is going to it (isnt it on ours too? and we get versus EXCLUSIVE HA) star ocean 4 (coming to ps3 too, microsoft would be hyping the crap out of it if it was exclusive) how littlebigplanet sucks and is a kids game (if it was on xbox, they would be praising it and saying its the best original game) i guess you have to blindly look at the facts when your console looks like a old dell pc
Devin @ Aug 12th 2008 2:01PM
way to add more fuel.....
Vavatch @ Aug 12th 2008 11:39AM
This post has a major error in it...
This line is an erroneous quote: "Heading the pack will be Sony and Microsoft, having both sold 230 million units." It SHOULD read "Heading the pack will be Sony and Nintendo, having both sold 230 million units."
Here is a copy/pasted (w/ corrected punctuation and highlighting) quote from the GamesIndustry article to clarify:
"According to Deering, sales of the DS and any future iterations of the hardware will reach 150 million by 2011, while the figure for Wii will be 80 million. He predicted the installed base for PS3 will be 70 million and said for PS2 it will be 90 million and PSP will be 70 million. In other words, Sony and Nintendo will each have sold 230 million machines."
"Deering said he believes the Xbox 360 and any sequels will experience "decent growth", predicting an installed base of 40 million by 2011."
duckhunt8 @ Aug 12th 2008 12:15PM
I noticed the MS mistake right away. He said it would have a TOTAL install base of 40mil, additional 40mil.
And even if it was an additional 40mil, that would total 60mil, not 80mil.
Vavatch @ Aug 12th 2008 12:56PM
duckhunt8 is correct...
But, Mr. Deering did say he predicts the number to be about 40 million for the 360 and it's sequels by 2011. I would expect the total number sold by then to be between 60 and 80 million units, but as people will cease using a console for any of various reasons over five years, sold does not translate directly into an active "installed base," and so 40 million Xbox 360s and any successor seems perfectly logical to me, if not optimistic by 2011.
Vavatch @ Aug 12th 2008 11:41AM
Sorry, the highlighting did not take. Apparently this blog strips html from posts.
LV426 @ Aug 12th 2008 7:32PM
Sony may yet make one hell of a showing by then, but I wonder about how it will compete with Nintendo.
Incidently, I think including PS2 is perfectly legit... ok, so it's not from the "current" generation, but the key point is it's still actively supported, and supported with some very well respected titles no less (Im getting Persona 4 when it hits).
If they want to support it still, then they keep it as a legitimate system in the competition. And damn, I dont think Ive seen a system age this well... ever. Congrats to Sony on that one.
JerJerBinks @ Aug 12th 2008 3:09PM
While, I love my PS3 and like my 360, that is not an excuse to completely discount a hardware platform because it isnt on the cutting edge of graphics. I would take great gameplay over graphics any day, and sometimes that means playing Metroid or Super Mario Galaxy.
Parting thoughts:
"It is not depravity that afflicts the human race so much as a general lack of intelligence." - Agnes Repplier
JerJerBinks @ Aug 12th 2008 3:12PM
Doh! This was a reply to oldmike.
Bob @ Aug 12th 2008 4:31PM
It really doesn't surprise me that you have idiots on the PS3 section claiming the Wii isn't next gen. I know you all have to cry yourselves to bed each evening knowing that your big black piece of crap can't move units.
Someone here tried to define next gen as processing power? Umm excuse me, who made you the all determining factor what next gen is? Who cares about processing power. Next Gen is, the next generations of of succeeding consoles. With your though process you can say xbox 360 was last gen and ps3 is this gen cause the ps3 has more processing power, yet as proven that means nothing in the gaming world. Next gen is the next generation of CONSOLES based on release dates. The ps2 is last GEN, yes Sonly has to include these numbers in their hardware sales, because without them, the numbers for Sony would abysmal, much like their company is. Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii are all CURRENT GEN consoles. Each brings something to the table, just cause the Wii doesn't have pretty graphics, it provides a level of immersion that no amount of processing power and graphical prowess alone can provide.
So get over yourselves and face the fact. The Current GEN leader is the Wii, if Sony wants to include PS2 in their sales figures, then Nintendo's Gamecube should also be included seeing as it techinally a MORE POWERFUL console than the PS2. So PS3 lovers go to hell.
oldmike @ Aug 12th 2008 8:08PM
you are the one thats the fooling yourself
the 360 and PS3 are in the same class of systems
if you add a wii like controler to a PS2 almost every wii game can be done
but there no way a wii can do any of the things the true next gen systems can do
in the next year or two most will have moved on to HD TVs
and then the dated look of the wii will show
hell there allready working on the Wii 2 face it they riped off soo many ppl selling a over priced gamecube with a new controler for $250
building up hype with non gamers shorting stores systems to keep hype up its the best con job i seen better then any movie
but keep your thinking up so in 2010 wean the wii2 come out you will shell out the $300 for a true next gen system
Rustykettle @ Aug 13th 2008 1:59AM
There will always be little five-year-olds asking their moms and dads for a wii. Things will not change. I don't care about sales anymore. It's none of my business being a fanboy and keeping tally of our "score."(sales) All I care about as a gamer is that the ps3 will put out great games in the years to come, and that I don't have to send it back to Sony every month.