Samsung director believes Blu-ray has '5 years left'
by Andrew Yoon 
{ Sep 4th 2008 at 3:30PM }
The time to capitalize on Blu-ray is now, the Samsung head said. "It's going to be huge", he told Pocket-lint. "We are heavily back-ordered at the moment." The company is one of few that's heavily invested in the format, with numerous Blu-ray players available on the market.
There will always be new formats on the horizon, but we find it unlikely that Blu-ray will extinguish in so little time. With HD adoption still slowly growing, so too will Blu-ray's momentum. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see where home video stands in the next decade.
[Via Engadget]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
theoneneo81 @ Sep 4th 2008 3:34PM
and people Said the same thing about dvd and Cds
Mein Bratwurst @ Sep 4th 2008 5:36PM
lol yeah, also, Samsung has some sort of alliance with Microsoft. What a joke, I hate when people talk out of their ass.
Hashbrown Hunter @ Sep 4th 2008 5:35PM
Two examples to prove your logic wrong.
iTunes
Netfilx
J @ Sep 4th 2008 6:49PM
netflix rents out blu rays and dvd's, wat da fuck is ur point? I rent a lot of blu rays from netflix. and there aren't as many good movies worth streaming. I guess that only leaves you with one example.
As for itunes, i never saw it competing with cd's. I know that sounds crazy, but i always thought it competed with piracy. I would think that some songs are just easier to find on itunes than limewire.
Carlton @ Sep 5th 2008 9:03AM
@ Hashbrown Hunter
You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. All the digital download services combined comprise less than 10% of album sales. CD sales are higher now than they were before digital downloads took off.
Digital downloads have made even less of a dent in the DVD market.
francisco @ Sep 4th 2008 3:39PM
they're high...blu-ray coming out with the 120gb blu-ray disc hell no it aint! was it 120gb? i forgot how much they said lol
Rowdehaj @ Sep 4th 2008 3:57PM
Think it was 500, actually.
Phantom @ Sep 4th 2008 3:50PM
They already have 400GB discs , just that they cost alot and aren't completly functional.
OddyOh @ Sep 4th 2008 4:40PM
Yeah, Mr Griffiths is talking out his ass...Blu-Ray is here to stay. Sure no format last forever, but even if they only crank out 100GB discs in the next couple years, that'll kill his argument pretty quick. Maybe he doesn't read enough tech sites... :) If they manage 400GB, it'll be here for 10 years at least.
And I agree that downloads aren't catching on...there's barely enough bandwidth, and here in Canada, the PSN Video Store doesn't even exist, and iTunes Canada has lousy TV & Movie selection anyway.
Discs FTW! Plus you can re-sell them.
TJ @ Sep 4th 2008 8:08PM
I know that they have a 16 layer 400Gb BrD. But a friend of mine told me he's tryin to find it, but sony might have a 1 terrabyte disk.
gtrace @ Sep 4th 2008 3:41PM
so what would the benefit be of a new format? with newer layering coming out that is expanding the amount of space BRdiscs can hold....and they already can hold full movies in 1080p with full 7.1 sound.
untill we have some kind of 3-d or holographic technology why would there be a new format there isnt a new type of screen that can display anything beyond what blu-ray is capable?
Invisible Robot Meat @ Sep 4th 2008 3:48PM
I think it makes more sense that in 5 years Blu-ray would really taking off, with HDTVs becoming more of the norm rather than the exception and more people owning PS3s and what not.
Devin @ Sep 4th 2008 4:40PM
Exactly, when HDTV's become a justifiable purchase for most of the middle class and BR prices fall into current DVD prices, BR will excel. It's all about price and content/technology to drive it.
Devin @ Sep 4th 2008 3:53PM
I guess my question would be, BR will be completely gone/deserted for a newer format? I'm lost.
Secondly, like gtrace said, the only way to justify another format would be a complete shift in the way we view content: 3D/holographically.
It's just hard to believe that there is something more that we're missing when viewing content at it's current state.
gameforall @ Sep 4th 2008 3:59PM
Said by the man who makes Hard Drives :P
Jon Acheson @ Sep 4th 2008 4:03PM
I think Blu-Ray is going to have a pretty long life, probably longer than DVD, more like VHS.
The reason is, Blu-Ray delivers 1080P content at full quality, which means that for HDTV, that's all you need. In order for Blu-Ray to be obsoleted, you'll have to move the market past HDTV to something even more uber, and that's not going to happen within five years, or even 10.
Most people only replace their TVs when the old ones wear out, and then they replace them with something the same price that fits in the same spot in the family room. So even getting to 90% adoption of HDTV will be a long war of attrition. I figure HDTV will be around for 20 years easily.
The only thing that might dethrone Blu-Ray is digital downloads, but most of what I see today isn't even DVD quality. 1080P digital downloads aren't even on the market yet, and won't be practical for most people without a sea change in internet connectivity. So, there's another 10 years at minimum. And even then, I predict people will still want to own physical media.
Credge @ Sep 4th 2008 4:08PM
Downloadable media won't be coming anytime soon. Many ISP's are limiting monthly bandwidth and downloadable media, specifically in the form of movies, isn't going to happen.
Games and music are a different story as a game lasts for longer than 2-3 hours and can fit in a smaller space than a movie. Even further, most people like to rent lots of movies at once. Services like Netflix are incredibly popular because of this and to think that downloadable media, something that ISP's don't want any part of, is going to become popular is a pipe dream.
sugpants @ Sep 4th 2008 4:08PM
yeah, and how does that work with the 10 year lifespan of the PS3?
what a douche, you'd think he would do his research before talking. They sure pay him enough to bother.
John @ Sep 4th 2008 4:09PM
I fully believe Blu-Ray won't have the success of DVD. I'm more than convinced that for most home users, lack of physical media is the big win. Downloadable HD movies/TV shows will be a much bigger sell. No boxes to store on a shelf.
Besides, 1080p doesn't mean much unless your TV screen is over 40", and most don't have more than a 5.1 sound system in their home.
Devin @ Sep 4th 2008 4:21PM
Digital downloads make sense for renting movies, but what if it's a movie you want to keep? Most people don't want to mess with thinking digitally and wondering how they can backup their movies. Also, they will probably want to watch it in other places than where they downloaded the movie to. IMO there will always be a place for physical media, but digital downloads will be the way of the future. Pricing will have to be significantly lower than physical media though.
will @ Sep 4th 2008 4:40PM
why do people keep saying that? it's a load of shit. even a 32" 1080p set looks much better than 720p.
motorer @ Sep 4th 2008 5:09PM
@Will
Word. people who say you need a huge TV to tell the difference between 720p and 1080p don't know what the hell they're talking about.
I don't know where that whole lie started. it's total bullshit.
Draco @ Sep 4th 2008 5:17PM
@Will
Agreed. I have a 720p 32" and I regret every day that it's not 1080p... mind you I use it as a computer screen and 1368x768 isnt awesome.
Sangor @ Sep 4th 2008 5:44PM
Please don't spread that rubbish about 1080, and 40"+ TV's. It may have been the case a few years ago, but now most 32" TV's can display 1080p just as good.
Popfrogs @ Sep 4th 2008 7:15PM
Guys guys guys...the 32" 1080p thing is true...for most people. Here's a chart that makes it clear.
http://www.carltonbale.com/2006/11/1080p-does-matter/
The AVSForum has already ruled on this and I believe them. It's all about pixel density vs. viewing distance.
grognard66 @ Sep 4th 2008 4:40PM
I don't know if 5 years is the magic number, but even Sony has publically stated that Blu-Ray will likely be the last hard media storage device because of downloads (and they are hedging their bets with movies/tv shows on PSN). It's just a question of the adoption rate for reliable broadband access in the developed world. Blu-Ray is in the awkward position of possibly being too early in terms of HDTV adoption to make it viable and conversely being too late to matter in terms of people being able to download quickly instead.
I'm a gadget geek and invested in both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, but I had no false illusions that either format would really end up "winning". If I get a year or two of enjoyment out of my players I'm happy enough.
phr3qu3ncy441 @ Sep 4th 2008 4:22PM
i can see his point... digital distribution could potentially become favorable (though it still has a long way to go in terms of drm handling and pricing, imo).
i guess it really depends which format of the future becomes the most versatile (i.e. can bring over to a friend's place and watch it with them). i still rent dvds off netflix for that reason.
i guess only time will tell. frankly, i hope br gets more popular and even more cheaper (players too) so i can start buying more br movies.
Metal_Gear @ Sep 4th 2008 4:29PM
DVDs were created in about 1995 i think it is, no one had even heard of it until 1999. I think Blu-Ray is doing fantastically.
And I take the complete opposite stance of John, I HATE downloading. CDs still sell extremely well as people like to have the CD, downloads mean all it will take is one little crash, and you have lost everything. I like to have a self of the games I own. ^_^
And how many 10GB+ plus downloads until you stab someone in the face because you only have a 1mbps internet connection?
jojo29 @ Sep 4th 2008 4:56PM
Heres the problem with that statement:
1. Our internet infrastructure would not be able to handle ALL the movie downloads that people would be doing, hell ISPs are already limiting the bandwith on users, and thats not even HALF of people who download movies, imagine if EVERYONE who buys DVD/BRs switched to downloads? Don't even want to think about that.
2. Physical Media is still the best way to go. There are numerous reasons. It can't get data corruption, it really doesn't matter which "media player" you use, you pop it in and it plays, no codecs to worry about. You can easily take it to a friends house, just bring a back pack full of movies and your set for an all nighter, you don't have to worry if you computer/external hard drive crashes, you don't have to sit 2-3 hours for one movie to 'download', in that time you could have gone to the store to pick up popcorn, pack up said backup, buy the movie and watch 1hour of the movie by the time it DLs.
3. People don't like 'plans'. People have enough "plans" to worry about: Cell phone plans, Internet/Cable/Phone plans, they would be reluctant to get into a "pay x amount for x amount of movie DLs per month', granted this can be overcome, but it does take awhile for this to be setup properly.
Here is the number one reason on top of all those above:
Holywood is greedy. They don't want to risk losing money the way the the music industry has. There are two key differences tho: 1. Music Files are TINY, and quick to DL, 2. Movie files, if you care about quality that is, ARE HUGE and SLOW to download. Those two reasons are what's on Hollywood's side right now and 3. DRM. I highly doubt they will allow you to transfer movie files from one media device into another.
Anywhoo, i don't doubt Digital Downloads is the future, but the future will not be here in 5 years or 10 years for that matter.
Jon Acheson @ Sep 5th 2008 10:18AM
I mostly agree with you, though I have heard of physical media getting "bit rot" due to manufacturing defects. Typically, a disc that doesn't get sealed properly at the edges or the center, allowing the media to oxidize. That's incredibly rare though, whereas every hard drive ever made will surely wear out under normal use.
ModeMan101 @ Sep 4th 2008 5:05PM
I wonder if perhaps Griffiths was misinterpreted by the writer of the article, and was actually referring to the remaining lifespan of DVD? I know that's a stretch, considering how many people have yet to move to HD. I just don't see how HD downloads are going to replace disc-based HD software in the near future, until either (a) everyone has a FiOS line coming into their house or (b) a unified video/audio standard for HD downloads - whether it be to a home computer or set-top box - is in place.
NightHawk @ Sep 4th 2008 5:09PM
someone needs to tell Samsung to lay off that Haterade. I heard it's bad for you
Nate @ Sep 4th 2008 9:25PM
you know, in 5 years I'll get my first HD TV (saving up for the ps3 first). So right about the time that he says the format is dead, I'll be buying it. Crazy, based off nothing, and just plain arrogant.
J @ Sep 4th 2008 6:42PM
netflix rents out blu rays and dvd's, wat's ur point? I rent a lot of blu rays from netflix. and there aren't as many good movies worth streaming. I guess that only leaves you with one example.
As for itunes, i never saw it competing with cd's. I know that sounds crazy, but i always thought it competed with piracy. I would think that some songs are just easier to find on itunes than limewire.
boots555 @ Sep 4th 2008 7:21PM
No way, blu-ray will last 10 for sure.
iamkid @ Sep 4th 2008 9:07PM
LOL. dude needs to open his eyes and see that bluray is here to stay for a long time. sure right now some people say 'oh, hdtv, bluray, etc, who cares? my dvd's look fine', but thats slowly changing. i know i like the look of blurays WAY better than dvd, it makes me feel like im at the movies, especially on a big screen.
Daalyman @ Sep 4th 2008 9:38PM
Five years is a long time for everyone to get on the
blu-ray format.
It's to short of a time for people to switch over
to whatever this dude is talking about.
His forgetting that as the price comes down then
people will buy blu-ray.
I have heard that this xmas a company that makes
blu-ray players is making one for under $250.00.
Also as reported here Criterion's blu-ray movies are
going to priced the same as their dvd counterparts.
I just don't see it happen.
alex @ Sep 4th 2008 10:26PM
I love it so much when on of the heads of a multibillion dollar company that actually makes the Blu-ray players and sees the trends and numbers is being questioned about his opinion by completely uninformed nerds on a forum.
Shawn @ Sep 5th 2008 8:30AM
Blue ray is off to a slow start because of the high price of players at the moment. I passed on HD, but ill invest in a blue ray player and im willing to bet the shelves at wal-mart will be stocked with blue ray discs beyond 10 years from now. Sam-sung needs a new CEO.
stewbid @ Sep 5th 2008 5:53AM
Come on people think. THINK! There's two reasons why the dude said this.
1. He may be talking about BR from a business perspective, i.e. it being a profitable revenue source. Just like I'm sure standard DVD players aren't at the top of the "revenue generating device" category for most high tech companies. I bet it only has 3 years in that respect before all the 3rd tier copycats come out w/ their own.
2. Sales of CDs and DVDs aren't growing, in the case of CDs they've been declining due to online music (and piracy). With broadband speeds increasing rapidly and wireless technology (like WiMax) I'm sure we'll be able to download 1080p movies within minutes at anyplace making them effectively "just in time", as much as having a physical BR disc. It's 5 years, a lot will happen.
I honestly think BR will be the last physical format. It's all gonna be about compression and encoding standards from here on out. All hail...umm... MPEG10!
thread @ Sep 5th 2008 12:13PM
I know I know, Samsung's products never last more than 5 years (1 year or less!) doesn't means other products won't last that long. Improve your own junk first!
PiemanPieman @ Sep 5th 2008 12:19PM
Digital downloads comes down to one simple thing: Access. This varies throughout the world, so who knows what will be popular where. Each country has their own mess to sort out, and I'm just talking from a US, and even Canada, point of view.
I just got DSL (1.5 Mbps) 2 years or so ago. Just 2 years. Know what we had before then? Dial-up. Why? Why would I do this to myself? Obviously there was no choice. Haha laugh and point at the dude that doesn't have enough sense to live in a decent place, but oh well. Not everyone lives on the heavily wired coastal areas of our continent. Some people live in the middle and like it, and here the infrastructure is terrible for broadband.
With it taking that long just to get a decent DSL connection, you'll excuse me if I laugh at the mass adoption of digital downloads. Everyone watches movies. It makes sense for companies to give everyone access to movies. Until there are some major overhauls here, digital downloads can't do that.
I think people with HDTVs do want Blu-Ray. People buying new TVs today tend to buy HD. My Grandma (who has no internet at all, by the way, how soon we dismiss the elderly) recently bought a very nice 1080p Sony LCD. As people are doing this Blu-Ray adoption comes in lieu of the DVD. I see this happening at a much faster rate than the complete reworking of our online systems.
DRAGONDEATHIAN @ Sep 5th 2008 1:01PM
well i know that the ps3 sells more than any blu ray players out there because u get more for your buck so that maybe he sayin that because their not sellin any thing and download movies dont have subtitles and bonus features like physical but i maybe wrong